AND THE WINNER IS...

AN ILL-ADVISED LOOK AHEAD AT SOME POTENTIAL PLAYERS IN AWARDS SEASON 2008

Nobody is more ready than I am to put the 2007 awards season in the rearview mirror... and nobody is more anxious for the 2008 awards season to begin, either!

At this time, we obviously have very little information upon which to base any discussion of what the awards landscape may look like—not only have none us seen the films, but some of them have not yet even gone into production! That being said, one can—and many do—venture an 'educated guess' as to what and who some of the prime suspects may be by considering a few key criteria of a film, or what I like to call its 'pedigree': (1) release date, (2) subject matter, (3) on-screen and behind-the-scenes talent, (4) historical precedent, (5) buzz about and excitement for its release.

Clearly, this 'formula' is anything but fool-proof—some movies don't live up to expectations (Lions for Lambs, Rendition) and some exceed them (Juno, Gone Baby Gone)—but most of the time our early Best Picture suspicisions are validated with at least some nominations, if not wins (Cold Mountain, Munich, Atonement). Therefore, purely for fun, here is a rundown, in alphabetical order, of the films that I suspect will be key players in the 2008 Oscar race, with my best-guess final five listed at the end...

APPALOOSA (TBA, New Line)
Oscar nominated actor Ed Harris adapted, directed, and co-stars in this western with Oscar nominee Viggo Mortensen as a marshal and deputy in the Old West who attempt to restore order to a town that is suffering under the rule of a ruthless rancher (played Oscar winner Jeremy Irons) who murdered the previous marshal and deputy. The new lawmen arrest the rancher, but hired guns help him escape, prompting a long pursuit that leads to an inevitable showdown. Will the marshal return to the young, piano-playing widow (Oscar winner Renee Zellweger) who has won his heart, or will evil prevail?

THE ARGENTINE and GUERILLA (both TBA, Focus Features)
Under the watchful eyes of Oscar winning director Steven Soderbergh, Oscar winning actor Benicio Del Toro brings Che Guevara back to life in these two films—think Flags of Our Fathers and Letters from Iwo Jima... only Communist! In the first film, Guevara and Fidel Castro lead a band of Cuban exiles who in 1956 overthrew of U.S.-friendly Cuban dictator Fulgencio Batista. Early photos of and buzz about Del Toro hint that his performance may be one for the ages. (Oscar nominee Catalina Sandino Moreno and Benjamin Bratt also star.) In the second film, which I see as less likely, Guevara travels to New York City to address the United Nations.

AUSTRALIA (11/14, 20th Century Fox)
This epic film reunites Moulin Rouge director Bazz Luhrmann and Oscar winner Nicole Kidman, along with fellow Aussie Hugh Jackman, in a story of one woman's personal struggle intersecting with a national struggle during World War II after the Japanese, shortly after bombing Pearl Harbor, began bombing Darwin, Australia. The script was penned by Oscar winner Ronald Harwood. The essential question: will this be what Cold Mountain was or what it could have been?

BLINDNESS (8/8, Miramax)
City of God director Fernando Meirelles directs this big screen adaptation of Nobel Prize winner Jose Saramago's popular novel about a tragic illness that afflicts all but one member of a small town. It stars past Oscar nominee Julianne Moore (who is long overdue for a win), Mark Ruffalo (who is long overdue to be a star), Gael Garcia Bernal, Danny Glover, and Sandra Oh.

BODY OF LIES (10/10, Warner Brothers)
The first time Ridley Scott and Russell Crowe worked together, Scott earned a Best Director nomination, Crowe a Best Actor win, and their film, Gladiator, won Best Picture. The second and third times were for A Good Year and American Gangster, and neither got any Oscar love. This fourth film, adapted from David Ignatius' novel about a journalist injured in the ongoing war in Iraq who is then hired by the CIA to track down and kill an al Qaeda terrorist, may get them back on track... particularly since Oscar nominee Leonardo DiCaprio is also involved. Then again, this year's Oscar nominees show the Academy has little taste for Iraq-related features, so who knows?

THE CHANGELING (11/7, Universal)
Directed by Clint Eastwood, this mystery film stars Oscar winner Angelina Jolie as the mother of a kidnapped child. When the child is returned home, it quickly becomes apparent that it is not the same child that went missing. Oscar nominees John Malkovich and Amy Ryan also star. The film sounds a tad too supernatural, but would Oscar-magnet Eastwood really waste his time on something unworthy?

THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON (12/19, Paramount)
David Fincher is one of the most talented directors of his generation, and this may be the vehicle to finally demonstrate that to a wide audience. Oscar winning screenwriter Eric Roth adapted F. Scott Fitzgerald's short story of a man who starts aging backwards, Brad Pitt stars as the man, and Oscar winners Cate Blanchett and Tilda Swinton are also along for the ride. The tone Fincher takes with the film—too serious? too lightweight?—will determine whether or not it has the stuff Oscars are made of.

DEFIANCE (TBA, Paramount Vantage)
Oscar winner Edward Zwick directs this original screenplay of three Jewish brothers—Daniel Craig (of James Bond fame), Liev Schreiber, and Jamie Bell—who escape from Nazi-occupied Poland into the forests of Belarus, where they join the Russian resistance. Zwick's past drama/war films have been received by the Academy both warmly (Glory) and coldly (The Last Samurai), so it's a gamble, but a film about the Holocaust and the resistance movement has a lot of potential.

DOUBT (12/5, Miramax)
John Patrick Shanley, the noted playwright and Oscar winning screenwriter (Moonstruck), has penned the script and directed his Pulitzer Prize winning play Doubt for the big screen, with Oscar winners Meryl Streep and Philip Seymour Hoffman and Oscar nominee Amy Adams headlining an impressive cast. The story, set at a Catholic school in New York in 1964, centers around a nun who suspects a priest of abusing a young black student, and must now decide how to respond. It film raises serious questions about religion, morality, and authority that could either prove compelling... or preachy, like this year's dud Lions for Lambs. It will all come down to how well Shanley can truly 'adapt' his work for a different medium... with the assistance of producer Scott Rudin, its prospects look bright.

FROST/NIXON (TBA, Universal)
Peter Morgan, who recently won accolades for writing The Queen, here adapts his own Broadway smash-hit into a film directed by Oscar winner Ron Howard and starring actors' actors Frank Langella and Michael Sheen (both from the play). The film recounts a series of dramatic post-Watergate interviews that ex-President Richard Nixon granted to British television reporter David Frost. (The film also features Kevin Bacon, Matthew Macfayden, Oliver Platt, and Sam Rockwell.)

MILK (11/TBA, Focus Features)
In a bio-pic that is sure to provoke controversy and attention, Oscar winner Sean Penn will be portraying Harvey Milk, the civil rights activist whose election as one of San Francisco's city supervisors made him the first openly-gay man to hold a prominent political office, and who was struck down in his prime by an assassin's bullets. The team behind American Beauty are producing, Oscar nominee Gus Van Sant is directing, and the rest of the cast includes Penn's Into the Wild protegee Emile Hirsch and No Country's Josh Brolin, both among the snubees of the 2007 awards season, as well as Diego Luna, Victor Garber, and James Franco as Milk's lover.

THE READER (12/12, The Weinstein Company)
Studio chiefs Bob and Harvey Weinstein must be foaming at the mouth—for the decade-plus they ran Miramax, they picked up Oscars like most of us pick up groceries, but since they went independent they have struggled mightily. This sounds like their return to form, though, as it re-pairs The Hours Oscar nominated writer David Hare, director Stephen Daldry, and producer Scott Rudin, and stars two of the best actors in the business, Kate Winslet and Ralph Fiennes, both of whom are both long-overdue for Oscars. Set in post-WWII Germany, it is the story of a young man's decades-long obsession with an older woman coming to a head during a war crimes trial.

REVOLUTIONARY ROAD (12/19, Paramount Vantage)
Richard Yates' admired debut novel from 1961 (one of Time magazine's 100 best since 1923) is finally being brought to the screen in a film produced by Scott Rudin, directed by Oscar winner Sam Mendes, and starring Kate Winslet (Mendes' wife) and Leonardo DiCaprio, together again for the first time since their characters went down and they shot up with Titanic. Eleven years later, they are portraying a young married couple in 1950s suburban Connecticut whose hopes and dreams of an above-average life (at a time when most hoped to be average) are painfully thwarted, throwing their family into chaos. Oscar winner Kathy Bates also stars.

SEVEN POUNDS (12/12, Sony)
Two-time Oscar nominated actor Will Smith is back in the race for the first time since The Pursuit of Happyness (2005). He has re-teamed with the director of that film, Gabriele Muccino to tell the story of a guilt-stricken man on the verge of suicide who is inspired to try to begin life anew thanks to a meeting with a caring woman (Rosario Dawson). In the course of attempting to make amends for the past and find meaning in the future, he changes the lives of seven strangers. Woody Harrellson and Barry Pepper also appear.

THE SOLOIST (TBA, DreamWorks)
Oscar nominated screenwriter Susannah Grant (Erin Brokovich) wrote a script based on the true story of Nathaniel Ayers, who was a violin prodigy before developing schizophrenia and winding up homeless and living on the streets of Skid Row. Joe Wright has directed Oscar winner Jamie Foxx as Ayers and Robert Downey, Jr. as the Los Angeles Times columnist who discovered him and told the world his story. Oscar nominee Catherine Keener and Tom Hollander also appear.

SYNECDOCHE, NEW YORK (TBA, TBA)
Oscar winner Charlie Kauffman, argubaly the most talented writer in the business today, both wrote and—for the first time—directed this film, which stars Oscar winners Philip Seymour Hoffman and Dianne Weist, Oscar nominees Catherine Keener, Samantha Morton, Emily Watson, and Michelle Williams, and the long-overdue Hope Davis and Jennifer Jason Leigh. Kauffman's films (most notably Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind) are known for their eccentric charms, and this one will probably be no exception—it centers around a theater director (Hoffman) whose life is crumbling around him as he mounts his latest production.

THE TIME TRAVELER'S WIFE (11/TBA, New Line)
The Notebook screenwriter Jeremy Leven has adapted another romantic comedy. This film will star Rachel McAdams (who got her big break on the former film) and Eric Bana as a married couple with a slight problem... he has a gene that causes him to involuntarily travel in time. Obviously, this could very easily be The Lake House, but a part of me thinks it might be something special, especially considering that both stars are among the most talented young people in the industry.

THE YOUNG VICTORIA (TBA, TBA)
Oscar winning screenwriter Julian Fellowes (Gosford Park) would seem to be in his element penning another British period piece, this time focusing on the early years in the life and reign of Queen Victoria, who rose to the throne at the age of 18, guided the British Empire at its height, and reigned for 64 years until her death—which was the longest period of any British monarch until Queen Elizabeth II surpassed it in 2007. It is rumored that Emily Blunt (The Devil Wears Prada), overseen by French director Jean-Marc Vallee, has delivered a remarkable performance. Rupert Friend (Pride and Prejudice) portrays her husband, Prince Albert, Oscar winner Jim Broadbent, Oscar nominee Miranda Richardson, and Paul Bettany also appear in the film, and it is of great note that Martin Scorsese and Sarah Ferguson, the Duchess of York, are among the film's producers.

If I had a gun to my head, I would guess that the five Best Picture nominees will wind up being Australia (20th Century Fox), Defiance (Paramount Vantage), Frost/Nixon (Universal), The Reader (The Weinstein Company), and Revolutionary Road (Focus Features), with The Young Victoria (TBA) as my alternate, and The Reader edging out Revolutionary Road (Winslet v. Winslet?) for the win. Granted, all of this will probably look very funny when we get to that point many months from now...