Saturday, December 22, 2007

THE STATE OF THE RACE

The following projections are by no means scientific and are arrived at through
a variety of means, including advance screenings and insights from trusted industry sources. As always, your comments are welcomed.
▲ (Positive momentum) ▼ (Negative momentum) NEW (New to the category)

BEST PICTURE
Projected Nominees
(1) Juno (Fox Searchlight)
(2) No Country for Old Men (Miramax) ▲
(3) Atonement (Focus Features)
(4) Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) ▲
 (5) The Diving Bell and Butterfly (Miramax)
Major Threats
(6) American Gangster (Universal) ▲
(7) Michael Clayton (Warner Brothers)
 (8) The Kite Runner (Paramount Classics) ▼
(9) Sweeney Todd (DreamWorks)
 (10) There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage)
(11) Eastern Promises (Focus Features) ▲
 (12) The Great Debaters (The Weinstein Company) ▲
In the Mix
(13) Charlie Wilson's War (Universal) ▲
(14) 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) ▲
(15) Hairspray (New Line) ▲
 (16) Before the Devil Knows You're Dead (THINKFilm) ▼
(17) Ratatouille (Disney)
(18) Once (Fox Searchlight) ▼

BEST DIRECTOR
Projected Nominees
(1) Ethan Coen, Joel Coen (No Country for Old Men) ▲
 (2) Joe Wright (Atonement)
 (3) Sean Penn (Into the Wild) ▲
 (4) Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)
 (5) Ridley Scott (American Gangster) ▲
 Major Threats
(6) Sidney Lumet (Before the Devil Knows You're Dead)
(7) Jason Reitman (Juno)
 (8) Tim Burton (Sweeney Todd)
(9) Marc Forster (The Kite Runner)
(10) Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood)
In the Mix
(11) Mike Nichols (Charlie Wilson's War) ▼
 (12) David Cronenberg (Eastern Promises) ▲
(13) Denzel Washington (The Great Debaters) ▲
 (14) Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton)

BEST ACTOR
Projected Nominees
(1) Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)
(2) Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd) ▼
 (3) George Clooney (Michael Clayton)
 (4) Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises) ▲
 (5) Ryan Gosling (Lars and the Real Girl) ▲
Major Threats
(7) Emile Hirsch (Into the Wild) ▲
(8) Frank Langella (Starting Out in the Evening)
(9) Denzel Washington (American Gangster) ▼
(10) James McAvoy (Atonement)
(11) Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah) ▼
In the Mix
(12) Tom Hanks (Charlie Wilson's War)
(13) John Cusack (Grace Is Gone)
(14) Jack Nicholson (The Bucket List)
(15) Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Savages)
(16) Josh Brolin (No Country for Old Men)

BEST ACTRESS
Projected Nominees
(1) Ellen Page (Juno)
(2) Marion Cotillard (La Vie En Rose)
 (3) Julie Christie (Away from Her)
(4) Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart) ▲
(5) Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: The Golden Age) ▲
Major Threats
(6) Keira Knightley (Atonement) ▼
(7) Laura Linney (The Savages) ▼
(8) Amy Adams (Enchanted) ▼
(9) Helena Bonham Carter (Sweeney Todd)
In the Mix
(10) Tang Wei (Lust, Caution)
(11) Halle Berry (Things We Lost in the Fire)
(12) Keri Russell (Waitress)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Projected Nominees
(1) Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild)
(2) Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)
(3) Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)
(4) Casey Affleck (The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford) ▲
(5) Tommy Lee Jones (No Country for Old Men) ▲
Major Threats
(6) Philip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson's War) ▼
(7) John Travolta (Hairspray) ▲
 In the Mix
 (8) Philip Bosco (The Savages)
 (9) Max von Sydow (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)
(10) Paul Dano (There Will Be Blood)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Projected Nominees
(1) Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone) ▲
(2) Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There)
(3) Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton) ▲
(4) Jennifer Garner (Juno)
(5) Ruby Dee (American Gangster) ▲
 Major Threats
(6) Saoirse Ronan (Atonement) ▼
(7) Catherine Keener (Into the Wild) ▲
(8) Vanessa Redgrave (Atonement) ▼
In the Mix
 (8) Marisa Tomei (Before the Devil Knows You're Dead)
(9) Kelly MacDonald (No Country for Old Men)
(10) Jennifer Jason Leigh (Margot at the Wedding)
(11) Leslie Mann (Knocked Up)
 (12) Tabu (The Namesake)

Posted by Editor at 05:27:45 | Permanent Link | Comments (7) |
Comments
1 - How can you still be predicting Juno for Best Picture and Best Supporting Actress? How is it still holding your number one slot for Best Picture? I agree that Oscar normally has a comedy slot, but Juno clearly isn't this year's Little Miss Sunshine. They couldn't even manage a SAG ensemble nomination. Is your love for the film getting in the way of your predicting? Also, where has Jennifer Garner shown that she has any Oscar legs? (Comment this)

Written by: Anonymous at 2007/12/22 - 13:55:15
2 - Wait for it... (Comment this)

Written by: Scott Feinberg at 2007/12/22 - 14:37:04
3 - I don't know... I can't see Juno there either. Best actress and Best screenplay, yeah. But Best Picture?
Change Juno into Sweeney Todd and I'm with you. (Comment this)

Written by: Yair Raveh at 2007/12/22 - 16:23:28
4 - Why is TWBB so low? Its been nominated for GG, BFCA etc. Its an art house film, but Diving Bell is nowhere near it critics tally lists, where TWBB is either first or second... 10th place?? (Comment this)

Written by: Anonymous at 2007/12/23 - 15:50:35
5 - Yeah Juno in the number one spot is a little bit ridiculous. I think you're weighing too much on the SAGs in general, except for what you don't want to be effected (i.e. Juno) (Comment this)

Written by: Anonymous at 2007/12/23 - 20:37:42
6 - My preferred actresses are Liv Ullman, Catherine Keener, Elodie Bouchez, Margherita Buy, Frances McDormand and Jennifer Garner. I really hope that Garner will have this nomination, 'cause it will give her a lot more credibility. A lot of people are prevented, only because she's been a TV action star and they claim to know she can't act... on the other side other people start to think that she's a good actress and that they didn't know it before Juno. Most of these people lost her 5 nominations for the Emmy (Alias). You don't need to be a critic to see that Garner is a very good actress, with a particular, peculiar talent that directors are discovering with pleasure bit by bit. (Comment this)

Written by: Anonymous at 2007/12/27 - 19:03:41 in reply to: 1
7 - Juno is even better than little miss sunshine in my opinion and I've seen both the movies (some people comment without watching the movies). It deserves a nomination absolutely for Best Movie, too. Page and Garner are great (and all the cast is perfect) (Comment this)

Written by: Anonymous at 2007/12/27 - 19:08:33
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