FLASH: SCOTT FEINBERG’S FINAL 2009 OSCAR FORECAST!

23 Feb

hurtlocker

BARRING ANY *MAJOR* DEVELOPMENTS BETWEEN NOW AND THE CLOSE OF VOTING A WEEK FROM TODAY, THESE WILL BE MY FINAL PROJECTIONS. I WILL CLEARLY NOTE ANY CHANGES HERE.

Projected win count: 5 – “The Hurt Locker”; 4 – “Avatar”; 2 – “Crazy Heart,” “Up”; 1 – “The Blind Side,” “The Cove,” Inglourious Basterds,” “The Last Truck: Closing of a G.M. Plant,” “A Matter of Loaf and Death,” “Miracle Fish,” “Precious,” “The Secret in Their Eyes,” “Star Trek,” “Up in the Air,” “The Young Victoria”

BEST PICTURE

“The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment)

BEST DIRECTOR

Kathryn Bigelow (“The Hurt Locker”)

BEST ACTOR

Jeff Bridges (“Crazy Heart”)

BEST ACTRESS

Sandra Bullock (“The Blind Side”)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Christoph Waltz (“Inglourious Basterds”)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Mo’Nique (“Precious”)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner (“Up in the Air”)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Mark Boal (“The Hurt Locker”)

BEST ANIMATED FILM

“Up” (Disney)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FILM

“The Cove” (Roadside Attractions)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

“The Secret in Their Eyes” (Argentina)

BEST ART DIRECTION

“Avatar” (Rick Carter, Robert Stromberg, Kim Sinclair)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

“The Hurt Locker” (Barry Ackroyd)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

“The Young Victoria” (Sandy Powell)

BEST FILM EDITING

“The Hurt Locker” (Bob Murawski, Chris Innis)

BEST MAKEUP

“Star Trek” (Barney Burman, Mindy Hall, Joel Harlow)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

“Up” (Michael Giacchino)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“The Weary Kind” (“Crazy Heart”)

BEST SOUND EDITING

“Avatar” (Christopher Boyes, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle)

BEST SOUND MIXING

“Avatar” (Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, Andy Nelson, Tony Johnson)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

“Avatar” (Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham, Andrew R. Jones)

BEST SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)

A Matter of Loaf and Death (Nick Park)

BEST SHORT FILM (DOCUMENTARY)

The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant (Steven Bognar and Julia Reichert)

BEST SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

Miracle Fish (Luke Doolan and Drew Bailey)

Photo: Anthony Mackie in “The Hurt Locker.” Credit: Summit Entertainment.

13 Responses

  1. Marcos 23. Feb, 2010 6:55 pm #

    Wow Scott! What made you vote for the Argentine film as Best Foreign Language Film? We know only a portion vote of possible voters decide this one, but did your hear rumors of a split in the votes?

  2. Editor 23. Feb, 2010 6:59 pm #

    No split necessary — it was simply the most well-liked of the lot!

  3. Dev 23. Feb, 2010 7:00 pm #

    Sorry, but accolades to Spock’s ears hardly make up for the film’s omission in the Best Picture category. Grmph.

  4. Shann 23. Feb, 2010 7:34 pm #

    Very cool, I was looking forward to your official predictions, as there have been quite a few good films this year. Although I really think “The Hurt Locker” is a great film, and I do agree that it will likely win Best Picture, I am curious as to why you believe it will also win for Best Screenplay and not “Inglorious Basterds” (which I really love!).

  5. Jean 23. Feb, 2010 10:27 pm #

    Why are you predicting Sandra Bullock over Meryl Streep?

  6. Editor 23. Feb, 2010 10:45 pm #

    Jean, see here: http://andthewinneris.blog.com/2010/02/23/bullock-2/

  7. Kenneth 23. Feb, 2010 11:33 pm #

    Scott,

    You had Mark Boal winning for most of the season and changed it to Tarantino at your last update. Why the sudden change back to Boal? I personally see Tarantino taking the statue home, but I was curious as to why you reverted back last minute.

  8. Dakota 24. Feb, 2010 1:39 am #

    I understand the Argentine film might be the most liked but what about the fact that The White Ribbon won the Palm D’Or and The Prophete has also won some international awards. Is this an upset like last year where Departures beat out Waltz With Bashir and The Class? This one really confused me as your final pick since before you were saying White Ribbon.

  9. Marcos 24. Feb, 2010 3:47 am #

    In Contention also suddenly veered toward the Argentine Film (and this fact was picked up by teh New York Times Oscar blog. I’ve seen both (Ribbon and Secret) and let me tell you that I am partial to Secret. And Secret has won Academy-voted awards (by this I mean not by a “Jury” of 20 people). Spain’s Goya and (is a cinch for) México’s Ariel.
    Again, this award is only voted by those who can prove that saw ALL five films in the screenings that the Academy organizes. So maybe it is voted by less than 1,000 out of the 6,000 plus members. That’s when we get the surprises.
    So, you see, Scott is not alone.

  10. Another Al 24. Feb, 2010 6:39 am #

    Scott, love your work. Do we get to see your alternates?

    Or perhaps where you think the most chance of an upset will come?
    I think actress or actor with Sidibe or Renner winning. Still, I agree with
    who you have picked.

  11. Danny King 24. Feb, 2010 6:30 pm #

    Does the Academy have a tendency to throw a curveball in the Best Foreign Film cateogry. I know The White Ribbon was the favorite for so long this year, and now Secret in Their Eyes seemst o be popping up everywhere. And of course, not many people thought Departures would win last year.

  12. Another Al 25. Feb, 2010 9:04 am #

    Danny,

    Downfall got beaten by The Sea Inside in 2004. That was a surprise I think.

    Amelie got pipped as well, albeit by the excellent No Man’s Land.

    The French, however, have the best strike rate in the award. Gives hope to A Prophet I guess.

    I think a few pundits tipped The Departures. Can’t recall who though.

  13. Marcos 26. Feb, 2010 12:52 am #

    Now even Entertainment Weekly has predicted Argentina for the Best Foreign Language Film. “…expect Argentina’s The Secret in Their Eyes to pull off an upset”… Wow! I wish it get realeased soon so you guy will be able to see what a great movie it is.

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