AND THE WINNER IS…

Just as this year’s Oscar race began to look settled — with “Avatar,” James Cameron, Jeff Bridges, Sandra Bullock, Christoph Waltz, and Mo’Nique winning virtually everything — the Producers Guild of America dropped a bombshell onto our illusions by presenting its Darryl F. Zanuck Producer of the Year Award not to the box-office bonanza “Avatar” (20th Century Fox, 12/18, trailer) but rather to the critics’ darling “The Hurt Locker” (Summit, 6/26, trailer).

That’s right, producers, that rare breed of money-hungry urchins, liked the movie that’s made a mere $16 million so much that they gave it their prize over the one that’s made $1.8 billion (on the very day that it surpassed “Titanic” to become the highest-grossing movie of all-time). In case you need it spelled out for you, that’s an upset of epic proportions — the cinematic equivalent of David slaying Goliath.

Anyone who tells you they saw this coming is a liar. Most of the people who follow this stuff closer than anyone — the top Oscar bloggers — actually did other things tonight rather than sit around waiting for the inevitable “Avatar” win that never came. (My former colleague Sasha Stone of Awards Daily actually called off her annual PGA prediction contest, writing, “Everyone knows that the PGA will go for Avatar.”)

So how did this happen? Some will suggest that a contingent of the guild didn’t want/wasn’t ready to embrace a movie with as much CGI-use as “Avatar”; or that votes basically split between “Avatar” and “Up in the Air” (Paramount, 12/4, trailer), thereby allowing a third movie to prevail with fewer votes than usual; or that “Avatar” is simply not as popular within the industry as it is outside of it. There may be a degree of truth to all of these theories, but I believe the real answer is this…

At the end of the day, voters tend to vote for who/what they like, not who/what they’re “supposed” to like. That’s why the Academy didn’t nominate “The Dark Knight” for best picture. That’s why “Crash” beat “Brokeback Mountain” to win best picture. That’s why Adrien Brody upset Jack Nicholson and Daniel Day-Lewis, and why Marion Cotillard beat Julie Christie and Ellen Page, and why Alan Arkin beat Eddie Murphy. And that’s why Bullock has already won so many awards this year — and may yet win the Oscar — for “The Blind Side.”

I can’t even begin to tell you how many Academy members have told me, “I prefer ‘The Hurt Locker,’ but I think it will be ‘Avatar.’” They may be right, or they may not be. What could well prove to be the case, though, is that this group accounts for a silent majority — people who, while privately filling out their ballots, will vote not the way they think they’re supposed to, but the way they want to, precursors and box-office be damned.

Perhaps we should be asking some harder questions about “Avatar,” too. We know that a movie can win the best picture Oscar without an acting nomination — it’s not easy, but “Slumdog Millionaire” did it just last year — but we don’t know if it can do it without the unreserved backing of actors, who represent the largest percentage of the Academy’s membership. “Slumdog” did win the SAG Award for best ensemble, whereas “Avatar” wasn’t even nominated, largely because many actors fear that films like “Avatar,” which feature digitally manufactured and/or perfected characters, will lead to a future in which human actors will be much less vital to the filmmaking process. (Mark Harris has a terrific piece about this very issue in this week’s Entertainment Weekly.)

What I do know is this: Exactly a week ago, I stood before Cameron in the press room at the Golden Globes, where he had won two prizes within the previous half-hour, and asked him if it was fair to say that he was again “the King of the World” again. While some people chuckled at the memory of his previous Oscar night faux-pas, nobody — least of all Cameron — laughed at the underlying premise of the question because it seemed so certain that he and “Avatar” were well on their way to repeating what he and “Titanic” did 12 years earlier: steamrolled to a bunch of Oscars on the back of critical and commercial success. Thanks, however, to tonight’s PGA shocker, Cameron and his ex-wife appear to have on their hands a serious battle for custody of not only the best director Oscar but the best picture Oscar, too.

For a sense of what a best picture victory for “The Hurt Locker” might look like, check out the video below, which was captured backstage at the Gotham Awards on November 30, moments after the film won that award there…

Photo: Jeremy Renner in “The Hurt Locker.” Credit: Summit.

Video: The team behind “The Hurt Locker” celebrate its best picture win at the Gotham Independent Film Awards. Credit: Rob Perri (video), Dr. Harvey Kliman (post-production).

On November 13, 2008, the actress Melissa Leo joined me at Brandeis University for a Q&A following a screening of her film “Frozen River,” for which she would go on to receive an Academy Award nomination for best actress. A few minutes into the conversation, I asked Melissa to explain what “Method acting” is for those who might not know, and she elected to cite as an example the work of Kristen Stewart in ”Welcome to the Rileys,” a Jake Scott film that she, Stewart, and James Gandolfini had just finished shooting in New Orleans.

Since “Rileys” is having its world premiere at the Sundance Film Festival as I type, I felt that now was as appropriate a time as any to share Melissa’s thoughts:

CLICK HERE TO LISTEN TO MELISSA TALK ABOUT KRISTEN!

They — along with Stewart’s performance in “Adventureland” and Julianne Moore‘s kind words about her abilities as an actress — have really opened my eyes to the fact that Kristen is much more than just another pretty face.

Photo: James Gandolfini, Kristen Stewart, and Melissa Leo in “Welcome to the Rileys.” Courtesy: IMDB.

Nobody can match the quantity and/or quality of Meryl Streep‘s accents: British in “The French Lieutenant’s Woman” (1981), Polish in “Sophie’s Choice” (1982), Danish in “Out of Africa” (1985), Irish-American in “Ironweed” (1987), Australian in “A Cry in the Dark” (1988), Italian “The Bridges of Madison County” (1995), Irish in “Dancing at Lughnasa” (1998), Upper-Midwest in “A Prairie Home Companion” (2006), Bronx in “Doubt” (2008), and Julia Child in “Julie & Julia” (2009).

Backstage at the 67th Golden Globes, moments after she won the best actress (musical or comedy) award for “Julie & Julia,” I asked her how she does it…

Related: Video Clips of Meryl Streep’s Various On-Screen Accents (Slate)

I first met the 24-year-old actress Anna Kendrick back in September when we were seated across from each other at a dinner party following the Toronto premiere of Jason Reitman‘s “Up in the Air” (Paramount, 12/4, trailer), in which she plays a young “corporate downsizer” opposite George Clooney. Over the months since, we’ve crossed paths and chatted at several events on the awards circuit in New York and Los Angeles. And on Monday, we finally sat down for a formal interview about the unlikely journey that has already taken her from the shores of Portland, Maine to the bright lights of Broadway and on to the red carpets of Hollywood, and may yet take her to the Academy Awards.

At the moment, Kendrick is as much of an “It” girl as anyone. She recently starred in Catherine Hardwicke‘s “Twilight” and Chris Weitz‘s “New Moon,” both among the biggest box-office hits of all-time; her next role will be in another likely blockbuster, Edgar Wright‘s “Scott Pilgrim vs. The World”; and, in the meantime, she’s been working tirelessly for “Up in the Air” and garnering best supporting actress nominations (HFPA, SAG, BAFTA, BFCA, and OFCS) and wins (NBR) from seemingly every awards group out there. In all likelihood, her next accolade will be a best supporting actress nomination from the Academy, which would would make her one of the category’s youngest nominees — and potentially its seventh youngest winner — ever.

To listen to audio highlights of my discussion with Kendrick, click the links below…

• Kendrick recalls her first steps into acting, including 6-hour bus rides into New York City for 15-minute auditions!

• Kendrick on her Broadway debut in “High Society” at the age of 12, for which she became the 2nd youngest Tony Award nominee ever

• Kendrick on her first steps into the world of film, “Camp” (2003) and “Rocket Science” (2007)

• Kendrick shares the good, the bad, and the ugly parts of being involved with the “Twilight” films (2008, 2009, 2010)
  

• Kendrick recounts her journey from receiving the script of “Up in the Air” through being cast as Natalie — and why she was certain that Reitman hated her and would replace her with Evan Rachel Wood!

• Kendrick dissects Natalie’s clothing, hair, posture, clenched jaw, and pace of speech
  

• Kendrick reveals her and Reitman’s real-life inspirations for Natalie

• Kendrick on her favorite scene (yelling at Clooney things she’d like to yell at her ex-boyfriend) and the scene that challenged her the most (firing a guy who reminded her of her father)

• Kendrick offers her theory on why Reitman works so well with young actors (Cameron Bright in “Thank You for Smoking,” Ellen Page in “Juno,” and herself in “Up in the Air”)

• Kendrick discusses jumping back-and-forth between the sets of “New Moon” and “Up in the Air”

• Kendrick on the joke she orchestrated between her sexy leading men Robert Pattinson and Clooney
  

• Kendrick says she has the same frustrations as Natalie

• Kendrick opens up about the “soul-crushing” process of awards campaigning

Photo: Anna Kendrick at the Los Angeles premiere of “Up in the Air.” Credit: Associated Press.

The exchange starts at 1:28…

Film

Best Ensemble

1. “Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company, 8/21)
2. “Precious” (Lions Gate, 11/6)
3. “The Hurt Locker” (Summit, 6/26)
4. “Nine” (The Weinstein Company, 12/18)
5. “An Education” (Sony Pictures Classics, 10/9)

Best Actor

1. Jeff Bridges (“Crazy Heart”)
2. George Clooney (“Up in the Air”)
3. Jeremy Renner (“The Hurt Locker”)
4. Colin Firth (“A Single Man”)
5. Morgan Freeman (“Invictus”)

Best Actress

1. Meryl Streep (“Julie & Julia”)
2. Sandra Bullock (“The Blind Side”)
3. Gabourey Sidibe (“Precious”)
4. Carey Mulligan (“An Education”)
5. Helen Mirren (“The Last Station”)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Christoph Waltz (“Inglourious Basterds”)
2. Woody Harrelson (“The Messenger”)
3. Christopher Plummer (“The Last Station”)
4. Matt Damon (“Invictus”)
5. Stanley Tucci (“The Lovely Bones”)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Mo’Nique (“Precious”)
2. Anna Kendrick (“Up in the Air”)
3. Vera Farmiga (“Up in the Air”)
4. Diane Kruger (“Inglourious Basterds”)
5. Penelope Cruz (“Nine”)

Television

Best Ensemble (Drama)

1. “Mad Men” (AMC)
2. “Dexter” (Showtime)
3. “True Blood” (HBO)
4. “The Good Wife” (CBS)
5. “The Closer” (TNT)

Best Ensemble (Comedy)

1. “Glee” (Fox)
2. “30 Rock” (NBC)
3. “Modern Family” (ABC)
4. “The Office” (NBC)
5. “Curb Your Enthusiasm” (HBO)

Best Actor (Drama)

1. Michael C. Hall (“Dexter”)
2. Hugh Laurie (“House”)
3. Jon Hamm (“Mad Men”)
4. Bryan Cranston (“Breaking Bad”)
5. Simon Baker (“The Mentalist”)

Best Actress (Drama)

1. Glenn Close (“Damages”)
2. Julianna Margulies (“The Good Wife”)
3. Kyra Sedgwick (“The Closer”)
4. Mariska Hargitay (“Law and Order: Special Victims Unit”)
5. Patricia Arquette (“Medium”)
6. Holly Hunter (“Saving Grace”)

Best Actor (Comedy)

1. Alec Baldwin (“30 Rock”)
2. Tony Shalhoub (“Monk”)
3. Steve Carell (“The Office”)
4. Larry David (“Curb Your Enthusiasm”)
5. Charlie Sheen (“Two and a Half Men”)

Best Actress (Comedy)

1. Tina Fey (“30 Rock”)
2. Toni Collette (“United States of Tara”)
3. Edie Falco (“Nurse Jackie”)
4. Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“The New Adventures of Old Christine”)
5. Christina Applegate (“Samantha Who?”)

Best Actor (TV Movie or Miniseries)

1. Kevin Bacon (“Taking Chance”)
2. Jeremy Irons (“Georgia O’Keeffe”)
3. Kevin Kline (“Great Performances: Cyrano de Bergerac”)
4. Tom Wilkinson (“A Number”)
5. Cuba Gooding, Jr. (“Gifted Hands: The Ben Carson Story”)

Best Actress (TV Movie or Miniseries)

1. Ruby Dee (“America”)
2. Jessica Lange (“Grey Gardens”)
3. Drew Barrymore (“Grey Gardens”)
4. Joan Allen (“Georgia O’Keeffe”)
5. Sigourney Weaver (“Prayers for Bobby”)

Photo: Some of the stars of “Inglourious Basterds.” Credit: The Weinstein Company.

Last week, I rang up the Oscar-nominated actress/fashion icon Anne Hathaway — with whom I spoke on numerous occasions last awards season and came to regard as one of the loveliest people in the business — to chat about her dear friend Valentino Garavani, the legendary couture designer, and “Valentino: The Last Emperor” (Acolyte, 3/18, trailer), Matt Tyrnauer‘s Oscar short-listed documentary about his life and work.

Both the film and my chat with Hathaway — highlights of which you can hear by clicking the links below — greatly advanced my understanding and appreciation of the world of fashion, as well as of the eccentric little orange-tanned man who was at its center for 40 years. I suspect they’ll do the same for you…

• Hathaway looks back on her personal introduction to couture fashion and Valentino

• Hathaway on her first impressions of Valentino

• Hathaway speculates on why Valentino, a nearly-80-year-old gay man, bonds so well with young heterosexual women like Madonna, Claire Danes, Gwyneth Paltrow, and herself

• Hathaway recalls the first time she wore a Valentino dress

• Hathaway explains what one has to do to get to wear a Valentino dress

• Hathaway reflects on all of the Valentino dresses that she’s worn — including the one on which he spilled red wine!

• Hathaway on what makes Valentino’s dresses more special than other designers’

• Hathaway shares what has most surprised her about Valentino since they’ve become friends

• Hathaway lists the reasons why she thinks “Valentino: The Last Emperor” is “a wonderful film” and “the most fun romantic-comedy of the year”

• Hathaway insists a doc about fashion can have something for everyone

• Hathaway on having become a fashion icon in her own right

Photo: Anne Hathaway and Valentino Garavani. Credit: WENN.