AND THE WINNER IS…

Rarely have I been so pleased to make an inaccurate projection: Kathryn Bigelow (“The Hurt Locker”) has vanquished her ex-husband James Cameron (“Avatar”) to win the 62nd DGA Award, becoming the first woman to ever win that prize and strongly positioning herself to make history at the Academy Awards on March 7 by becoming the first woman to ever win the best director Oscar. The winners of those two prizes have corresponded on all but 6 occasions over the past 61 years. Bigelow’s win also bodes well for her film’s prospects at the Oscars, since the DGA winner’s film has won the best picture Oscar on all but 13 occasions.

Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section below!

Photo: Kathryn Bigelow on the set of “The Hurt Locker.” Credit: Summit.

Related Reading: “The Bigelow Enigma,” “Before and After Bigelow: Great Female Directors“

The Academy is rather elitist when it comes to rewarding actors, but every once in a while, when given a passable enough excuse, it embraces someone who is known less for his or her body of film work than his or her popular appeal.

Often, these people are multi-hyphenates — people whose identity was forged in the popular imagination through some field other than moives, such as music (Bing Crosby), comedy (Robin Williams), or even war (Harold Russell). Sometimes, though, they’re just actors who have been working for years in the sorts of movies (often commercially popular) that the Academy doesn’t typically recognize (not coincidentally, musicals, comedies, and war films).

Regardless, when these sorts of people (the domestic variety are often called “America’s sweethearts”) have ventured even slightly into Oscar’s territory (dramas, period pieces, message films) over the 81 years that Oscars have been dished out, the Academy tends to notice and seize the opportunity to invite them into the club with impunity. This is precisely why Sandra Bullock — a longtime fan-favorite at the box-office for action-packed thrillers like “Speed” (1994) and romantic-comedies like “The Proposal” (2009) — has a lot of reason to be hopeful this year, even if she is going head-to-head with the mighty Meryl Streep.

“The Blind Side” is unlike any film Bullock has made since she became a star: it’s dramatic, inspirational, and a social conscience film with “important” messages to promote (be kind, be tolerant, stand up for what you believe in, etc.) — the Academy loves that kind of stuff! Moreover, Leigh Anne Tuohy is unlike any character Bullock has played since she became a star: a real person who couldn’t be more different from Bullock herself.

To play the part, Bullock transforms herself — her hair, her accent, her attitude — without compromising her screen persona that people have come to love. She may not look the same, but you know it’s still her under there, and you’re still rooting for her like you always do. That’s the trick. Julia Roberts did it a decade ago in “Erin Brokovich” (2000) and was rewarded with an Oscar over Ellen Burstyn, a revered actress with a lot of Oscar nominations and a best actress Oscar on her shelf like Streep. Now, unfortunately for Streep, it may be Bullock’s turn.

Following is a list that I have compiled of actors and actresses whose primary focus was/is something other than Oscar-fare but who were honored with an Oscar upon appearing in a film that could pass as it, probably as much out of affection for them personally as for their performance…

Best actor

• Bing Crosby (“Going My Way,” 1944) — (first nomination)
• John Wayne (“True Grit,” 1969) — (third nomination)

Best actress

• Joan Crawford (“Mildred Pierce,” 1945) — (first nomination)
• Barbra Streisand (“Funny Girl,” 1968) — (first nomination)
• Liza Minnelli (“Cabaret,” 1972) for best actress — (second nomination)
• Cher (“Moonstruck,” 1987) for best actress — (second nomination)
• Gwyneth Paltrow (“Shakespeare in Love,” 1998) — (first — and only — nomination)
• Julia Roberts (“Erin Brokovich,” 2000) — (third nomination)
• Reese Witherspoon (“Walk the Line,” 2005) — (first — and only — nomination)

Best supporting actor

• Harold Russell (“The Best Years of Our Lives,” 1946) — (first — and only — nomination)
• Frank Sinatra (“From Here to Eternity,” 1953) — (first nomination)
• George Burns (“The Sunshine Boys,” 1975) — (first — and only — nomination)
• Robin Williams (“Good Will Hunting,” 1997) — (fourth nomination)

Best supporting actress

• Donna Reed (“From Here to Eternity,” 1953) — (first — and only — nomination)
• Goldie Hawn (“Cactus Flower,” 1969) — (first nomination)
• Jennifer Hudson (“Dreamgirls,” 2006) — (first — and only — nomination)

NOTE: The glaring omission is Judy Garland, perhaps the ultimate “American sweetheart,” who — after a lifetime in the movies, and primarily in musicals — took on the lead role in the very Oscar-y drama “A Star Is Born” (1954), was nominated for best actress, but inexplicably lost. Well, maybe not so inexplicably — the person who vanquished her was another “American sweetheart,” Grace Kelly. Interestingly, she, too, was probably honored less for her specific performance in “The Country Girl” than for her body of work that year, which also included “Dial M for Murder” and “Rear Window.”

Photo: Sandra Bullock in her “other” 2009 film, “The Proposal.” Credit: Disney.

Some past TV work featuring 2009 Oscar hopefuls, for your consideration…

Daniel Day-Lewis (“Nine”) for best actor

Morgan Freeman (“Invictus”) for best actor

George Clooney (“Up in the Air”) for best actor

Jeff Bridges (“Crazy Heart”) for best actor

Meryl Streep (“Julie & Julia”) for best actress

Woody Harrelson (“The Messenger”) for best supporting actor [clip at 1:14]

Alec Baldwin (“It’s Complicated”) for best supporting actor

Penelope Cruz (“Nine”) for best supporting actress

Julianne Moore (“A Single Man”) for best supporting actress

Samantha Morton (“The Messenger”) for best supporting actress

Judi Dench (“Nine”) for best supporting actress

Diane Kruger (“Inglourious Basterds”) for best supporting actress

Mariah Carey (“Precious”) for best supporting actress

Sigourney Weaver (“Avatar”) for best supporting actress

Following is my forecast for Tuesday morning’s announcement of the 2009 Academy Award nominees, listed in the order in which I believe they are likeliest to be nominated:

BEST PICTURE

• 1. “The Hurt Locker”
  
• 2. “Avatar”
• 3. “Up in the Air”
• 4. “Inglourious Basterds”
• 5. “Precious”
• 6. “An Education”
• 7. “Up”
• 8. “Invictus”
• 9. “District 9”
• 10. “The Blind Side”

• Alternate “A Serious Man”
• Potential Surprise “The Hangover”
• Shoulda Been a Contender “500 Days of Summer”

BEST DIRECTOR

• 1. Kathryn Bigelow (“The Hurt Locker”)
  
• 2. James Cameron (“Avatar”)
• 3. Quentin Tarantino (“Inglourious Basterds”)
• 4. Jason Reitman (“Up in the Air”)
• 5. Lee Daniels (“Precious”)

• Alternate Neill Blomkamp (“District 9”)
• Potential Surprise Clint Eastwood (“Invictus”)
• Shoulda Been a Contender Oren Moverman (“The Messenger”)

BEST ACTOR

• 1. Jeff Bridges (“Crazy Heart”)
  
• 2. George Clooney (“Up in the Air”)
• 3. Colin Firth (“A Single Man”)
• 4. Morgan Freeman (“Invictus”)
• 5. Jeremy Renner (“The Hurt Locker”)

• Alternate Viggo Mortensen (“The Road”)
• Potential Surprise Tobey Maguire (“Brothers”)
• Shoulda Been a Contender Nicolas Cage (“Bad Lieutenant”)

BEST ACTRESS

• 1. Meryl Streep (“Julie & Julia”)
  
• 2. Sandra Bullock (“The Blind Side”)
• 3. Carey Mulligan (“An Education”)
• 4. Helen Mirren (“The Last Station”)
• 5. Gabby Sidibe (“Precious”)

• Alternate Emily Blunt (“The Young Victoria”)
• Potential Surprise Abbie Cornish (“Bright Star”)
• Shoulda Been a Contender Zooey Deschanel (“500 Days of Summer”)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• 1. Christoph Waltz (“Inglourious Basterds”)
  
• 2. Woody Harrelson (“The Messenger”)
• 3. Christopher Plummer (“The Last Station”)
• 4. Matt Damon (“Invictus”)
• 5. Anthony Mackie (“The Hurt Locker”)

• Alternate Stanley Tucci (“The Lovely Bones”)
• Potential Surprise Alfred Molina (“An Education”)
• Shoulda Been a Contender Peter Sarsgaard (“An Education”)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• 1. Mo’Nique (“Precious”)
  
• 2. Anna Kendrick (“Up in the Air”)
• 3. Vera Farmiga (“Up in the Air”)
• 4. Julianne Moore (“A Single Man”)
• 5. Samantha Morton (“The Messenger”)

• Alternate Maggie Gyllenhaal (“Crazy Heart”)
• Potential Surprise Diane Kruger (“Inglourious Basterds”)
• Shoulda Been a Contender Marion Cotillard (“Nine”)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• 1. Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner (“Up in the Air”)
  
• 2. Geoffrey Fletcher (“Precious”)
• 3. Nick Hornby (“An Education”)
• 4. Tom Ford (“A Single Man”)
• 5. Scott Cooper (“Crazy Heart”)

• Alternate Nora Ephron (“Julie & Julia”)
• Potential Surprise Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell (“District 9”)
• Shoulda Been a Contender Joe Penhall (“The Road”)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• 1. Mark Boal (“The Hurt Locker”)
  
• 2. Quentin Tarantino (“Inglourious Basterds”)
• 3. Pete Docter, Bob Peterson (“Up”)
• 4. Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber (“500 Days of Summer”)
• 5. Ethan Coen, Joel Coen (“A Serious Man”)

• Alternate Jon Lucas, Scott Moore (“The Hangover”)
• Potential Surprise James Cameron (“Avatar”)
• Shoulda Been a Contender Robert D. Siegel (“Big Fan”)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

• 1. “Up”
• 2. “Fantastic Mr. Fox”
• 3. “Coraline”
• 4. “The Princess and the Frog”
• 5. “Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs”

• Alternate “Ponyo”
• Potential Surprise “Mary and Max”
  
• Shoulda Been a Contender “9”

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

• 1. “A Prophet” (France)
  
• 2. “The White Ribbon” (Germany)
  
• 3. “The Secret in Their Eyes” (Argentina)
  
• 4. “Ajami” (Israel)
• 5. “Samson and Delilah” (Australia)

• Alternate “The Milk of Sorrow” (Peru)
• Potential Surprise “Winter in Wartime” (Netherlands)
  
• Shoulda Been a Contender “The Maid” (Chile)
  

BEST DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)

• 1. “Food, Inc.”
  
• 2. “The Cove”
• 3. “Garbage Dreams”
• 4. “Every Little Step”
• 5. “Mugabe and the White African”
  

• Alternate “Valentino”
• Potential Surprise “The Beaches of Agnes”
• Shoulda Been a Contender “Anvil! The Story of Anvil”

Earlier today, I provided an extensive look at the career of Kathryn Bigelow, who could well become the first woman to ever win the DGA Award on Saturday evening and/or the best director Academy Award on March 7. What I did not do earlier, and what I would like to do now, is acknowledge female directors whose struggles made it possible for someone like Bigelow to have the chance to show she belonged in the company of men, as well as female directors who will undoubtedly benefit from Bigelow having proven beyond a doubt just that. Following is an unprecedented listing of both — as well as of female directors of roughly the same generation as Bigelow — along with a select filmography for each.

Female directors who helped pave the way for Bigelow and her peers:

• Lois Weber (1881-1931) – “The Merchant of Venice” (1914), “The Dumb Girl of Portici” (1916), “The Blot” (1921)
• Marion Wong (18??-19??) – “The Curse of Quon Gwon” (1916)
• Dorothy Arzner (1897-1979) – “Fashions for Women” (1927), “Christopher Strong” (1933), “Dance, Girl, Dance” (1940)
• Leni Riefenstahl (1902-2003) – “Triumph of the Will “(1935), “Olympia, Parts 1 and 2″ (1938), “Underwater Impressions” (2002)
• Ida Lupino (1914-1995) – “The Bigamist” (1953), “The Hitch-Hiker” (1953), “The Trouble with Angels” (1966)
• Maya Deren (1917-1961) – “Meshes of the Afternoon” (1943), “At Land” (1944), “Ritual in Transfigured Time” (1946)
• Agnes Varda (1928-) – “Cleo from 5 to 7″ (1962), “Vagabond” (1985), “The Beaches of Agnes” (2009)
• Marguerite Duras (1914-1996) – “Nathalie Granger” (1972), “India Song” (1975), “The Truck” (1977)
• Lina Wertmüller (1928-) – “Love and Anarchy” (1973), “Swept Away” (1974), “Seven Beauties” (1975)
• Elaine May (1932-) – “A New Leaf” (1971), “The Heartbreak Kid” (1972), “Mikey and Nicky” (1976)

Female directors of Bigelow’s generation:

• Chantal Akerman (1950-) – “Jeanne Dielman, 23 Quai du Commerce, 1080 Bruxelles” (1975), “News from Home” (1977), “The Meetings of Anna” (1978)
• Gillian Armstrong (1950-) – “My Brilliant Career” (1979), “High Tide” (1987), “Little Women” (1994)
• Catherine Breillat (1948-) – “Brief Crossing” (2001), “Fat Girl” (2001), “The Last Mistress” (2007)
• Jane Campion (1954-) – “The Piano” (1993), “The Portrait of a Lady” (1996), “Bright Star” (2009)
• Patricia Cardoso (19??-) – “Real Women Have Curves” (2002)
• Claire Denis (1948-) – “Chocolat” (1988), “Beau Travail” (1999), “35 Shots of Rum” (2008)
• Christine Edzard (1945-) – “Little Dorrit” (1988), “The Fool” (1990), “As You Like It” (1992)
• Nora Ephron (1941-) – “Sleepless in Seattle” (1993), “You’ve Got Mail” (1998), “Julie & Julia” (2009)
• Marleen Gorris (1948-) – “Antonia” (1995), “The Luzhin Defence” (2000), “Carolina” (2003)
• Randa Haines (1945-)- “Children of a Lesser God” (1986), “The Doctor” (1991), “Wrestling Ernest Hemingway” (1993)
• Mary Harron (1953-) – “I Shot Andy Warhol” (1996), “American Psycho” (2000), “The Notorious Bettie Page” (2005)
• Amy Heckerling (1954-) – “Fast Times at Ridgemont High” (1982), “Look Who’s Talking” (1989), “Clueless” (1995)
• Agnieszka Holland (1948-) – “Europa Europa” (1990), “Olivier, Olivier” (1992), “The Secret Garden” (1993)
• Barbara Kopple (1946-) – “Harlan County U.S.A.” (1976), “American Dream” (1990), “Shut Up and Sing” (2006)
• Mimi Leder (1952-) – “The Peacemaker” (1997), “Deep Impact” (1998), “Pay It Forward” (2000)
• Penny Marshall (1943-) – “Big” (1988), “Awakenings” (1990), “A League of Their Own” (1992)
• Deepa Mehta (1950-) – “Fire” (1996), “Earth” (1998), “Water” (2005)
• Nancy Meyers (1949-) – “The Parent Trap” (1998), “What Women Want” (2000), “Something’s Gotta Give” (2003)
• Mira Nair (1957-) – “Salaam Bombay!” (1988), “Mississippi Masala” (1991), “Monsoon Wedding” (2001)
• Euzhan Palcy (1958-) – “Black Shack Alley” (1983), “A Dry White Season” (1989)
• Sally Potter (1949-) – “Orlando” (1992), “The Man Who Cried” (2000), “Yes” (2004)
• Patricia Rozema (1958-) – “When Night Is Falling” (1995), “Mansfield Park” (1999), “Kit Kittredge: An American Girl” (2008)
• Lone Scherfig (1959-) – “Italian for Beginners” (2000), “Wilbur Wants to Kill Himself” (2002), “An Education” (2009)
• Susan Seidelman (1952-) – “Smithereens” (1982), “Desperately Seeking Susan” (1985), “The Boynton Beach Bereavement Club” (2005)
• Penelope Spheeris (1945-) – “The Decline of Western Civilization” (1981), “Wayne’s World” (1992), “The Beverly Hillbillies” (1993)
• Barbra Streisand (1942-) – “Yentl” (1983), “The Prince of Tides” (1991), “The Mirror Has Two Faces” (1996)
• Margarethe von Trotta (1942-) – “The Lost Honor of Katharina Blum” (1975), “The German Sisters” (1981), “Rosa Luxemburg” (1986)

Female directors for whom Bigelow and her peers have helped to pave the way:

• Asia Argento (1975-) – “Scarlet Diva” (2000), “The Heart Is Deceitful Above All Things” (2004)
• Andrea Arnold (1961-) – “Red Road” (2006), “Fish Tank” (2009)
• Shari Springer Berman (1963-) – “The Young and the Dead” (2000), “American Splendor” (2003), “The Nanny Diaries” (2007)
• Susanne Bier (1960-) – “Brothers” (2004), “After the Wedding” (2006), “Things We Lost in the Fire” (2007)
• Anna Boden (19??-) – “Half Nelson” (2006), “Sugar” (2009)
  
• Niki Caro (1967-) – “Whale Rider” (2002), “North Country” (2005), “The Vintner’s Luck” (2009)
• Gurinder Chadha (1960-) – “Bend It Like Beckham” (2002), “Bride and Prejudice” (2004), “Angus, Thongs, and Perfect Snogging” (2008)
• Isabel Coixet (1960-) – “My Life Without Me” (2003), “The Secret Life of Words” (2005), “Elegy” (2008)
• Laurie Collyer (19??-) – “Sherrybaby” (2006)
• Sofia Coppola (1971-) – “The Virgin Suicides” (1999), “Lost in Translation” (2003), “Marie Antoinette” (2006)
• Heidi Ewing (19??-) – “The Boys of Baraka” (2005), “Jesus Camp” (2006), “12th and Delaware” (2010)
• Valerie Faris (1958-) – “Little Miss Sunshine” (2008)
• Anne Fletcher (1966-) – “Step Up” (2006), “27 Dresses” (2008), “The Proposal” (2009)
• Anne Fontaine (1959-) – “My Father and I” (2001), “Nathalie…” (2003), “Coco Before Chanel” (2009)
• Rachel Grady (19??-) – “The Boys of Baraka” (2005), “Jesus Camp” (2006), “12th and Delaware” (2010)
• Catherine Hardwicke (1955-)- “Thirteen” (2003), “Lords of Dogtown” (2005), “Twilight” (2008)
• Nicole Holofcener (1960-) – “Walking and Talking” (1996), “Lovely & Amazing” (2001), “Friends with Money” (2006)
• Courtney Hunt (1964-) – “Frozen River” (2008)
• Christine Jeffs (1963-) – “Rain” (2001), “Sylvia” (2003), “Sunshine Cleaning” (2009)
• Patty Jenkins (1971-) – “Monster” (2003)
• Tamara Jenkins (1962-) – “Slums of Beverly Hills” (1998), “The Savages” (2007)
• Vicky Jenson (19??-) – “Shrek” (2001), “Family Tree” (2003), “Shark Tale” (2004)
• Miranda July (1974-) – “Me and You and Everyone We Know” (2005)
• Nicole Kassell (19??-) – “The Woodsman” (2004)
• Karyn Kusama (1968-) – “Girlfight” (2000), “Aeon Flux” (2005), “Jennifer’s Body” (2009)
• Kasi Lemmons (1961-) – “Eve’s Bayou” (1997), “The Caveman’s Valentine” (2001), “Talk to Me” (2007)
• Caroline Link (1964-) – “Beyond Silence” (1996), “Nowhere in Africa” (2001), “A Year in Winter” (2008)
• Phyllida Lloyd (1957-) – “Mamma Mia!” (2008)
• Katia Lund (1966-) – “News from a Personal War” (1999), “City of God” (2002)
• Lucrecia Martel (1968-) – “The Martel” (2001), “The Holy Girl” (2004), “The Headless Woman” (2008)
• Rebecca Miller (1962-) – “Personal Velocity: Three Portraits” (2002), “The Ballad of Jack and Rose” (2005), “The Private Lives of Pippa Lee” (2009)
• Nina Paley (1968-) – “Sita Sings the Blues” (2008)
• Kimberly Peirce (1967-) – “Boys Don’t Cry” (1999), “Stop-Loss” (2008)
• Sarah Polley (1979-) – “Away from Her” (2007)
• Gina Prince-Bythewood (1969-) – “Love & Basketball” (2000), “The Secret Life of Bees” (2008)
• Kelly Reichardt (1964-) – “Ode” (1999), “Old Joy” (2006), “Wendy and Lucy” (2008)
• Adrienne Shelly (1966-2006) – “Sudden Manhattan” (1997), “I’ll Take You There” (1999), “Waitress” (2007)
• Loveleen Tandan (19??-) – “Slumdog Millionaire” (2008)
• Julie Taymor (1952-) – “Titus” (1999), “Frida” (2002), “Across the Universe” (2007)
• Betty Thomas (1948-) – “The Brady Bunch Movie” (1995) “Private Parts” (1997), “28 Days” (2000)
• Sam Taylor Wood (1967-) – “Nowhere Boy” (2009)

Photo: Dorothy Arzner directing a film. Credit: Museum of American Heritage.

As we discussed yesterday in an in-depth primer, the 62nd DGA Award on Saturday evening will give us our most reliable indication yet of who win the best director Oscar (winners have corresponded on all but 6 occasions) and what will win the best picture Oscar (winners have corresponded on all but 13 occasions). The two favorites are, of course, Kathryn Bigelow (“The Hurt Locker”) and James Cameron (“Avatar”), ex-spouses whose films couldn’t be more different but whose directorial achievements this year are both astounding, leaving experts divided about which of the two will take home the prizes.

Regardless of the outcome, one thing is already certain: Bigelow has gone where few other women have ever gone before in the awards season. Indeed, only six other women have ever been nominated for the DGA Award — Lina Wertmüller for “Seven Beauties” (1975), Randa Haines for “Children of a Lesser God” (1986), Barbra Streisand for “The Prince of Tides” (1991), Jane Campion for “The Piano” (1993), Sofia Coppola for “Lost in Translation” (2003), and Valerie Faris, who was nominated with co-director Jonathan Dayton, for “Little Miss Sunshine” (2006). (Only three — Wertmüller, Campion, and Coppola — went on to earn a nomination for the best director Oscar, and none of them ever had a serious shot at winning, as Bigelow does.)

For the past 30 years, Bigelow has quietly but steadily carved a niche in the film industry: she is a female director who makes “guy movies” — particularly of the action, sci-fi, suspense, thriller, and/or war variety, with lots of shootouts and/or explosions — as well as virtually any male, and for a lot less money. “The Hurt Locker,” which is as intense as any movie this year and cost only $15 million to make, is the best example of this, but far from the first.

Bigelow’s first film, made while she was a student at Columbia University, was a self-professed exploration of “why violence in cinematic form is so seductive.” It was a short called “The Set-Up” (1978), and according to IMDB it features “two men beating each other to a pulp in a dark alley, while two professors analyzed the philosophy of it all on the soundtrack.” In other words, it was clear from the start that Bigelow wasn’t interested in making romantic-comedies or Cinderella stories.

Here is a brief look at each of the eight feature films that she has made…

• “The Loveless” (1982), a drama set in the 1950s in which a motorcycle gang stops in a small town and clashes with the locals; starring Willem Dafoe and Robert Gordon

• “Near Dark” (1987), a horror film in which a young man is unwittingly turned into a vampire by a young woman and struggles to escape from her family and protect his own; with Adrian Pasdar and Jenny Wright

• “Blue Steel” (1989), a suspense thriller in which a cop is accused of killing an unarmed man, only to discover that the person who took the culprit’s gun from the scene and used it to commit several murders was her own boyfriend; with Jamie Lee Curtis and Ron Silver

• “Point Break” (1991), an action film about an undercover FBI investigation into a series of bank robberies; with starring Keanu Reeves and Patrick Swayze

• “Strange Days” (1995), a sci-fi thriller in which an ex-cop races against time to try to prevent a murderer from striking again; with Ralph Fiennes and Angela Bassett

• “The Weight of Water” (2000), a thriller in which the members of a group investigating long-ago murders begin to turn on each other; with Sean Penn and Sarah Polley

• “K-19: The Widowmaker” (2002), a thriller set during the Cold War in which a Soviet nuclear submarine malfunctions in the north Atlantic, threatening to spark World War III; with Harrison Ford and Liam Neeson

• “The Hurt Locker” (2009), a war film in which an elite Army bomb squad charged with dismantling IEDs in Iraq struggles to survive its tour of duty mentally and physically intact; with Jeremy Renner and Anthony Mackie

Photo: Kathryn Bigelow. Credit: Film Reference.com

On Saturday evening, the Directors Guild of America will present its 62nd annual DGA Award for Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Feature Film to one of the following five nominees:

• Kathryn Bigelow (“The Hurt Locker”)
• James Cameron (“Avatar”)
• Lee Daniels (“Precious”)
• Jason Reitman (“Up in the Air”)
• Quentin Tarantino (“Inglourious Basterds”)

Before I share the name of the nominee who I am projecting to win, allow me to share a few important factoids about the DGA:

• The DGA, which consists of roughly 13,500 members, is effectively the union for all film and TV directors.
• The majority of members work in TV, not film, and only 8,000 or so live in the Los Angeles area, with the rest scattered across the country.
  
• Members are not allowed to receive DVD screeners of films, so they must actually take the initiative to see the films at industry screenings or their local Cineplex, which would seem to give an advantage to early and/or commercially successful releases over late-releases and/or art-house fare.
  
• The DGA has been dishing out awards since 1948. Over the past 61 years, the DGA Award winner and Academy Award winner for best director have corresponded on all but six occasions:
  • 1968 DGA honored Anthony Harvey (“The Lion in Winter”); AMPAS honored Carol Reed (“Oliver!”)
  • 1972 DGA honored Francis Ford Coppola (“The Godfather”); AMPAS honored Bob Fosse (“Cabaret”)
  • 1985 DGA honored Steven Spielberg (“The Color Purple”); AMPAS honored Sydney Pollack (“Out of Africa”)
  • 1995 DGA honored Ron Howard (“Apollo 13″); AMPAS honored Mel Gibson (“Braveheart”)
  • 2000 DGA honored Ang Lee (“Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon”); AMPAS honored Steven Soderbergh (“Traffic”)
  • 2002 DGA honored Rob Marshall (“Chicago”); AMPAS honored Roman Polanksi (“The Pianist”)
• The film directed by the DGA winner has gone on to be named best picture by the Academy (AMPAS) on all but 13 occasions, making it one of the most accurate precursors out there:
  • 1948 DGA honored “A Letter to Three Wives”; AMPAS honored “Hamlet”
  • 1951 DGA honored “A Place in the Sun”; AMPAS honored “An American in Paris”
  • 1952 DGA honored “The Quiet Man”; AMPAS honored “The Greatest Show on Earth”
  • 1956 DGA honored “Giant”; AMPAS honored “Around the World in 80 Days”
  • 1967 DGA honored “The Graduate”; AMPAS honored “In the Heat of the Night”
  • 1968 DGA honored “The Lion in Winter”; AMPAS honored “Oliver!”
  • 1981 DGA honored “Reds”; AMPAS honored “Chariots of Fire”
  • 1985 DGA honored “The Color Purple”; AMPAS honored “Out of Africa”
  • 1989 DGA honored “Born on the Fourth of July”; AMPAS honored “Driving Miss Daisy”
  • 1995 DGA honored “Apollo 13″; AMPAS honored “Braveheart”
  • 1998 DGA honored “Saving Private Ryan”; AMPAS honored “Shakespeare in Love”
  • 2000 DGA honored “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon”; AMPAS honored “Gladiator”
  • 2005 DGA honored “Brokeback Mountain”; AMPAS honored “Crash”

PROJECTION

Maybe this is foolish in light of last Saturday’s ground-shattering PGA win for Bigelow’s “The Hurt Locker” and of the apparent groundswell of enthusiasm for a female to finally win the best director Oscar, but I am betting my chips on a Cameron victory. Of his fellow nominees, only Tarantino had ever been so much as nominated by the DGA before this year, whereas he was not only nominated but won 12 years ago for “Titanic” (1997). Moreover, with the exception of Tarantino’s, none of his fellow nominees’ films have been widely seen — as I mentioned above, it’s up to DGA members to get to theaters, since screeners are not sent to the full membership — and even Tarantino’s has made only about one-sixth of what Cameron’s has. Several of these nominees faced hardships en route to realizing their directorial visions — Bigelow spent weeks on the border of Iraq, in the middle of Ramadan, in sizzling heat, with her entire body covered because she is a woman; Daniels had to cobble together funds from all sorts of unlikely people and places to get his film made and distributed — but none has a narrative as compelling as Cameron’s. He spent a lifetime dreaming up his film; helped invent the complex technology necessary to fully realize his dream; convinced a major studio to give him an unprecedented amount of money and resources to implement the technology; spent four years at work on the film; and earned rave reviews and unprecedented box-office numbers for his efforts. While Bigelow’s smaller-scale film is also extraordinary and a strong threat to win, I suspect that fellow directors, as much as anyone, will appreciate and want to recognize Cameron and the Odyssian journey that was the making of “Avatar.”

Photo: James Cameron on the set of “Avatar.” Credit: 20th Century Fox.

RELATED READING: Sasha Stone of AwardsDaily.com has composed an in-depth primer for the DGA Awards in which she identifies the strengths and weaknesses of each of this year’s nominees. She projects a Bigelow win.

Earlier today, while conducting research for an upcoming post on the career of best director hopeful Kathryn Bigelow (“The Hurt Locker”), I made what I believe to be a rather interesting discovery.

15 years ago, Bigelow directed a movie called “Strange Days” (1995), a sci-fi thriller that revolves around a cutting-edge piece of technology getting into the wrong people’s hands. The technology? SQUID recordings — recordings made from one person’s cerebral cortex that, when played through a MiniDisc-like device, allow another person to feel and experience the same things.

Now maybe it’s just me, but doesn’t that — employing a technological device to put oneself into another’s body, for better or worse — sound a hell of a lot like the purpose of avatars in James Cameron‘s new film “Avatar”?

Oh, wait… maybe that’s because Cameron — who was married to Bigelow from August 17, 1989 until 1991, and has remained her friend/supporter ever since — wrote the story, then co-adapted the story into the screenplay (along with Jay Cocks), and then co-produced the screenplay (along with Steven-Charles Jaffe) of “Strange Days.”

So… I suppose one might argue that Bigelow directed the first version of “Avatar”!

To get an even better sense of the similarities between the films, check out their trailers below…

Photo: James Cameron and Kathryn Bigelow on the set of “Strange Days” in 1995. Credit: Merie W. Wallace for 20th Century Fox.

Whoever suggests the funniest caption for this photo (in the comments section below) will be mailed an official program from the recent Golden Globes!

Photo: Suzy Amis and James Cameron arrive at the Egyptian Theatre in Los Angeles for the premiere of “The Hurt Locker” on May 6, 2009. Credit: Frederick M. Brown (Getty Images).

BEST PICTURE
Projected Nominees
[1] “The Hurt Locker” (Summit, 6/26, trailer) ▲
[2] “Avatar” (20th Century Fox, 12/18, trailer)
[3] “Up in the Air” (Paramount, 12/4, trailer)
[4] “Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company, 8/21, trailer)
[5] “Precious” (Lions Gate, 11/6, trailer)
[6] “An Education” (Sony Pictures Classics, 10/9, trailer)
[7] “Up” (Disney, 5/29, trailer)
[8] “Invictus” (Warner Brothers, 12/11, trailer)
[9] “The Blind Side” (Warner Brothers, 11/20, trailer) ▲
[10] “District 9” (TriStar, 8/14, trailer)
Major Threats
[11] “Star Trek” (Paramount, 5/8, trailer)
[12] “The Messenger” (Oscilloscope, 11/13, trailer)
[13] “A Serious Man” (Focus Features, 10/2, trailer)
[14] “The Hangover” (Warner Brothers, 6/5, trailer)
[15] “Julie & Julia” (Columbia, 8/7, trailer)
[16] “Crazy Heart” (Fox Searchlight, 12/16, trailer) ▲
[17] “Nine” (The Weinstein Company, 12/18, trailer)
On the Outside
[18] “Brothers” (Lions Gate, 12/4, trailer)
[19] “A Single Man” (The Weinstein Company, 12/11, trailer)
[20] “The Last Station” (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/23, trailer)
[21] “500 Days of Summer” (Fox Searchlight, 7/17, trailer)
[22] “It’s Complicated” (Universal, 12/25, trailer)
[23] “This Is It” (Columbia, 10/28, trailer)

BEST DIRECTOR
Projected Nominees
[1] Kathryn Bigelow (“The Hurt Locker”) ▲
[2] James Cameron (“Avatar”)
[3] Jason Reitman (“Up in the Air”)
[4] Quentin Tarantino (“Inglourious Basterds”)
[5] Lee Daniels (“Precious”)
Major Threats
[6] Clint Eastwood (“Invictus”)
[7] Ethan Coen, Joel Coen (“A Serious Man”)
[8] Neill Blomkamp (“District 9”)
[9] Lone Scherfig (“An Education”)
On the Outside
[10] Nora Ephron (“Julie & Julia”)
[11] Jim Sheridan (“Brothers”)
[12] Michael Haneke (“The White Ribbon”)

BEST ACTOR
Projected Nominees
[1] Jeff Bridges (“Crazy Heart”)
[2] George Clooney (“Up in the Air”)
[3] Colin Firth (“A Single Man”)
[4] Morgan Freeman (“Invictus”)
[5] Jeremy Renner (“The Hurt Locker”)
Major Threats
[6] Daniel Day-Lewis (“Nine”)
[7] Tobey Maguire (“Brothers”)
[8] Michael Stuhlbarg (“A Serious Man”)
On the Outside
[9] Ben Foster (“The Messenger”)
[10] Matt Damon (“The Informant!”)

BEST ACTRESS
Projected Nominees
[1] Sandra Bullock (“The Blind Side”) ▲
[2] Meryl Streep (“Julie & Julia”)
[3] Carey Mulligan (“An Education”)
[4] Gabby Sidibe (“Precious”)
[5] Helen Mirren (“The Last Station”)
Major Threats
[6] Emily Blunt (“The Young Victoria”)
[7] Melanie Laurent (“Inglourious Basterds”)
On the Outside
[8] Abbie Cornish (“Bright Star”)
[9] Marion Cotillard (“Nine”)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Projected Nominees
[1] Christoph Waltz (“Inglourious Basterds”) ▲
[2] Woody Harrelson (“The Messenger”)
[3] Christopher Plummer (“The Last Station”)
[4] Matt Damon (“Invictus”)
[5] Anthony Mackie (“The Hurt Locker”)
Major Threats
[6] Stanley Tucci (“The Lovely Bones”)
[7] Alfred Molina (“An Education”)
On the Outside
[8] Alec Baldwin (“It’s Complicated”)
[9] Christian McKay (“Me and Orson Welles”)
[10] Peter Sarsgaard (“An Education”)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Projected Nominees
[1] Mo’Nique (“Precious”) ▲
[2] Anna Kendrick (“Up in the Air”)
[3] Vera Farmiga (“Up in the Air”)
[4] Julianne Moore (“A Single Man”)
[5] Penelope Cruz (“Nine”) ▼
Major Threats
[6] Maggie Gyllenhaal (“Crazy Heart”)
[7] Samantha Morton (“The Messenger”)
[8] Marion Cotillard (“Nine”)
[9] Diane Kruger (“Inglourious Basterds”)
[10] Judi Dench (“Nine”)
On the Outside
[11] Mariah Carey (“Precious”)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Projected Nominees
[1] Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner (“Up in the Air”)
[2] Geoffrey Fletcher (“Precious”)
[3] Nick Hornby (“An Education”)
[4] Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell (“District 9”)
[5] Scott Cooper (“Crazy Heart”) ▲
Major Threats
[6] Nora Ephron (“Julie & Julia”)
[7] Tom Ford (“A Single Man”)
[8] Wes Anderson, Noah Baumbach (“The Fantastic Mr. Fox”)
[9] Michael Hoffman (“The Last Station”)
[10] Jane Campion (“Bright Star”)
On the Outside
[11] Anthony Minghella, Michael Tolkin (“Nine”)
[12] Roberto Orci, Alex Kurtzman (“Star Trek”)
[13] Anthony Peckham (“Invictus”)
[14] David Benioff (“Brothers”)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Projected Nominees
[1] Mark Boal (“The Hurt Locker”) ▲
[2] Quentin Tarantino (“Inglourious Basterds”)
[3] Pete Docter, Bob Peterson (“Up”)
[4] Ethan Coen, Joel Coen (“A Serious Man”)
[5] Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber (“500 Days of Summer”)
Major Threats
[6] James Cameron (“Avatar”)
[7] Jon Lucas, Scott Moore (“The Hangover”)
On the Outside
[8] Nancy Meyers (“It’s Complicated”)
[9] Alessandro Camon, Oren Moverman (“The Messenger”)
[10] Pedro Almodovar (“Broken Embraces”)

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Projected Nominees
[1] “Food, Inc.” (Magnolia, 6/12, trailer)
[2] “The Cove” (Roadside Attractions, 7/31, trailer)
[3] “The Beaches of Agnes” (Cinema Guild, 7/1, trailer)
[4] “Garbage Dreams” (Iskander, 7/31, trailer)
[5] “Mugabe and the White African” (Arturi, 8/7, trailer)
Major Threats
[6] “Valentino: The Last Emperor” (Acolyte, 3/18, trailer)
[7] “Burma VJ” (Oscilloscope, 5/20, trailer)
[8] “Sergio” (Passion, 1/1, trailer)
[9] “Every Little Step” (Sony Pictures Classics, 4/17, trailer)
[10] “Soundtrack for a Revolution” (Freedom Song, 8/7, trailer)
[11] “Under Our Skin” (Shadow, 6/19, trailer)
On the Outside
[12] “The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers” (Kovno, 6/1, trailer)
[13] “Which Way Home” (HBO, 1/31, trailer)
[14] “Facing Ali” (Lions Gate, 6/16, trailer)
[15] “Living in Emergency: Stories of Doctors Without Borders” (Red Floor, 8/14, trailer)

Photo: Sandra Bullock in “The Blind Side.” Credit: Warner Brothers.