It is extremely unlikely that a lead actor or lead actress not nominated at the Globes (in either of the two categories for lead actors and lead actresses) will be nominated at the Oscars. Indeed, over the past 10 years, only seven actors and seven actresses have been. They were:

Best Actor

• Ed Harris (“Pollock,” 2000)
• Sean Penn (“I Am Sam,” 2001)
• Tom Wilkinson (“In the Bedroom,” 2001)
• Clint Eastwood (“Million Dollar Baby,” 2004)
• Ryan Gosling (“Half Nelson,” 2006)
• Tommy Lee Jones (“In the Valley of Elah,” 2007)
• Richard Jenkins (“The Visitor,” 2008)
  

Best Actress

• Keisha Castle-Hughes (“Whale Rider,” 2003)
• Samantha Morton (“In America,” 2003)
• Naomi Watts (“21 Grams,” 2003)
• Catalina Sandino Moreno (“Maria Full of Grace,” 2004)
• Laura Linney (“The Savages,” 2007)
• Melissa Leo (“Frozen River,” 2008)
  
• Kate Winslet (“The Reader,” 2008) Nom’d for/won supporting actress Globe and lead actress Oscar
  

It is, however, extremely likely that one or two supporting actors or supporting actresses not nominated at the Globes will be nominated at the Oscars. (The fact that both bodies feature only five nominees in each supporting category, unlike the leading categories in which the Globes nominate five more individuals than the Oscars, naturally decreases the likelihood that the Oscars will pick the same performances.) Indeed, over the past 10 years, 14 actors and 11 actresses have not overlapped. They were:

Best Supporting Actor

• Ethan Hawke (“Training Day,” 2001)
• Ian McKellen (“The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring,” 2001)
• Christopher Walken (“Catch Me If You Can,” 2002)
• Benicio Del Toro (“21 Grams,” 2003)
• Djimon Hounsou (“In America,” 2003) The Globes must not like him, huh?
• Alan Alda (“The Aviator,” 2004)
• Jake Gyllenhaal (“Brokeback Mountain,” 2005)
• William Hurt (“A History of Violence,” 2005)
• Alan Arkin (“Little Miss Sunshine,” 2006) WON the Oscar!
• Jackie Earle Haley (“Little Children,” 2006)
• Djimon Hounsou (“Blood Diamond,” 2006) Twice! The Globes really must not like him…
• Hal Holbrook (“Into the Wild,” 2007)
• Josh Brolin (“Milk,” 2008)
  
• Michael Shannon (“Revolutionary Road,” 2008)
  

Best Supporting Actress

• Marcia Gay Harden (“Pollock,” 2000) WON the Oscar! The Globes must not like her, huh?
• Julianne Moore (“The Hours,” 2002)
• Catherine Zeta-Jones (“Chicago,” 2002)* WON the Oscar!
  
• Shohreh Aghdashloo (“House of Sand and Fog,” 2003)
• Marcia Gay Harden (“Mystic River,” 2003) Twice! The Globes really must not like her…
• Sophie Okonedo (“Hotel Rwanda,” 2004)
• Amy Adams (“Junebug,” 2005)
• Catherine Keener (“Capote,” 2005)
• Abigail Breslin (“Little Miss Sunshine,” 2006)
• Ruby Dee (“American Gangster,” 2007)
• Taraji P. Henson (“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” 2008)
  

(*This performance was nominated in the lead category at the Globes and in the supporting category at the Oscars.)

Can we deduce anything from the instances in which the Globes went one way and the Oscars went another? Only something that we basically already knew: All things being equal, the HFPA will almost always nominate a celebrity over an actor’s actor, whereas the AMPAS will almost always nominate an actor’s actor over a celebrity.

To get a better sense of what I’m talking about, let’s focus on the two categories in which the Globes and Oscars both had to single out five performances: supporting actor and supporting actress. Check out the following list of performances from over the past 10 years that the Globes chose to nominate that the Oscars did not (see above for their choices), and you’ll immediately recognize just how shameless the HFPA is — and that they have a rather weird fetish for Cameron Diaz…

Best Supporting Actor

• Steve Buscemi (“Ghost World,” 2001) Fair enough.
• Hayden Christensen (“Life As a House,” 2001) They were just really pumped for “Star Wars.”
• Jude Law (“A.I.: Artificial Intelligence,” 2001) What?!
• Dennis Quaid (“Far From Heaven,” 2002) Fair enough.
• Albert Finney (“Big Fish,” 2003) It’s ’60s night at the Globes!
• William H. Macy (“Seabiscuit,” 2003) Fair enough.
• David Carradine (“Kill Bill: Volume 2,” 2004) Riiight.
• Will Ferrell (“The Producers,” 2005) Sooo awards-worthy…
• Bob Hoskins (“Mrs. Henderson Presents,” 2005) Fair enough.
• Ben Affleck (“Hollywoodland,” 2006) Guess who’s coming to the party?!
• Jack Nicholson (“The Departed,” 2006) Fair enough.
• Brad Pitt (“Babel,” 2006) Guess who’s coming to the party?!
• John Travolta (“Hairspray,” 2007) Oy…
• Tom Cruise (“Tropic Thunder,” 2008) Really?
• Ralph Fiennes (“The Duchess,” 2008) Probably the most inexplicable nod ever. His studio was even shocked.
  

Best Supporting Actress

• Catherine Zeta-Jones (“Traffic,” 2000) She’s quite sexy, no?
• Cameron Diaz (“Vanilla Sky,” 2001) The second time (after “Being John Malkovich” in 1999)
• Cameron Diaz (“Gangs of New York,” 2002) Third time’s the charm…. I just threw up in my mouth a little.
• Susan Sarandon (“Igby Goes Down,” 2002) Hey, she’s a big name!
• Maria Bello (“The Cooler,” 2003) Fair enough.
• Hope Davis (“American Splendor,” 2003) Fair enough.
• Meryl Streep (“The Manchurian Candidate,” 2004) Big star! So-so movie…
• Scarlett Johansson (“Match Point,” 2005) Hmm…
• Shirley MacLaine (“In Her Shoes,” 2005) Really?
• Emily Blunt (“The Devil Wears Prada,” 2006) Fair enough.
• Julia Roberts (“Charlie Wilson’s War,” 2007) They’re joking, right?
• Kate Winslet (“The Reader,” 2008) Fair enough — the Academy also nom’d her, but in the proper category.

Photo: Michael Shannon in “Revolutionary Road.” Credit: Paramount Vantage.