Following is my forecast for the 2009 Golden Globe nominations (which will be announced on Tuesday morning), based on both a close study of Golden Globes history/trends and numerous conversations with members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association over the past few weeks. Under each category, I have listed five contenders (from most to least likely to earn a nomination, in my estimation), as well as two additional contenders as “Alt.,” or alternatives. I include these because the HFPA periodically/inexpicably includes more than five nominees in a category.

Best Picture (Drama)

1. “Up in the Air” (Paramount, 12/4)
2. “Invictus” (Warner Brothers, 12/11)
3. “The Hurt Locker” (Summit, 6/26)
4. “Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company, 8/21)
5. “An Education” (Sony Pictures Classics, 10/9)

• Alt. “Precious” (Lions Gate, 11/6), “Avatar” (20th Century Fox, 12/18)

Best Picture (Musical or Comedy)

1. “Nine” (The Weinstein Company, 12/18)
2. “Julie & Julia” (Columbia, 8/7)
3. “It’s Complicated” (Universal, 12/25)
4. “A Serious Man” (Focus Features, 10/2)
5. “Sherlock Holmes” (Warner Brothers, 12/25)

• Alt. “500 Days of Summer” (Fox Searchlight, 7/17), “The Hangover” (Warner Brothers, 6/5)
  

Best Director

1. Jason Reitman (“Up in the Air”)
2. Clint Eastwood (“Invictus”)
   
3. Kathryn Bigelow (“The Hurt Locker”)
4. Quentin Tarantino (“Inglourious Basterds”)
5. James Cameron (“Avatar”)

• Alt. Lee Daniels (“Precious”), Rob Marshall (“Nine”)

Best Actor (Drama)

1. George Clooney (“Up in the Air”)
   
2. Morgan Freeman (“Invictus”)
3. Jeff Bridges (“Crazy Heart”)
4. Colin Firth (“A Single Man”)
5. Tobey Maguire (“Brothers”)
   

• Alt. Brad Pitt (“Inglourious Basterds”), Jeremy Renner (“The Hurt Locker”)
  

Best Actor (Musical or Comedy)

1. Daniel Day-Lewis (“Nine”)
2. Robert Downey, Jr. (“Sherlock Holmes”)
3. Matt Damon (“The Informant!”)
4. Sacha Baron Cohen (“Bruno”)
5. Michael Stuhlbarg (“A Serious Man”)

• Alt. Robert De Niro (“Everybody’s Fine”), Joseph Gordon-Levitt (“500 Days of Summer”)

Best Actress (Drama)

1. Carey Mulligan (“An Education”)
2. Sandra Bullock (“The Blind Side”)
3. Helen Mirren (“The Last Station”)
4. Abbie Cornish (“Bright Star”)
5. Gabby Sidibe (“Precious”)

• Alt. Penelope Cruz (“Broken Embraces”), Emily Blunt (“The Young Victoria”)
  

Best Actress (Musical or Comedy)

1. Meryl Streep (“Julie & Julia”)
2. Meryl Streep (“It’s Complicated”)
3. Sandra Bullock (“The Proposal”)
4. Marion Cotillard (“Nine”)
5. Amy Adams (“Julie & Julia”)

• Alt. Zooey Deschanel (“500 Days of Summer”), Katherine Heigl (“The Ugly Truth”)
  

Best Supporting Actor

1. Christoph Waltz (“Inglourious Basterds”)
2. Alec Baldwin (“It’s Complicated”)
3. Matt Damon (“Invictus”)
4. Woody Harrelson (“The Messenger”)
5. Christopher Plummer (“The Last Station”)

• Alt. Jude Law (“Sherlock Holmes”), Stanley Tucci (“Julie & Julia”)
  

Best Supporting Actress

1. Penelope Cruz (“Nine”)
2. Mo’Nique (“Precious”)
3. Anna Kendrick (“Up in the Air”)
4. Judi Dench (“Nine”)
5. Natalie Portman (“Brothers”)

• Alt. Julianne Moore (“A Single Man”), Vera Farmiga (“Up in the Air”)

Best Screenplay

1. Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner (“Up in the Air”)
2. Mark Boal (“The Hurt Locker”)
3. Nick Hornby (“An Education”)
4. Quentin Tarantino (“Inglourious Basterds”)
5. Geoffrey Fletcher (“Precious”)

• Alt. Ethan Coen, Joel Coen (“A Serious Man”), Anthony Peckham (“Invictus”)

Best Foreign Language Film

1. “A Prophet” (France)
2. “Broken Embraces” (Spain)
3. “Coco Before Chanel” (France)
4. “The Maid” (Chile)
5. “London River” (Algeria)

• Alt. “The White Ribbon” (Germany), “Lebanon” (Israel)

Best Animated Feature Film

1. “Up” (Disney, 5/29)
   
2. “The Fantastic Mr. Fox” (Fox Searchlight, 11/25)
3. “Coraline” (Focus Features, 2/6)
4. “The Princess and the Frog” (Disney, 12/11)
5. “A Christmas Carol” (Disney, 11/6)

• Alt. “Ponyo” (Disney, 8/14), “Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs” (Columbia, 9/18)

UPDATE @ 12/12 9pm EST: It has been called to my attention that Baldwin (“It’s Complicated”) will be competing at the Globes in supporting, not lead (musical or comedy), so I have moved him into that category. Consequently, I have shifted everyone else in supporting down one spot – and Alfred Molina (“An Education”) out altogether – and everyone in lead up one spot — with Joseph Gordon-Levitt (“500 Days of Summer”) now filling the second alternate position.

Photo: George Clooney, holding his Golden Globe for “Syriana” (2005), is eligible this year for “Up in the Air” and “The Men Who Stare at Goats.” Credit: HFPA.