Last year, shortly before Election Day, I wrote about some of the things that modern presidential campaigns and Oscar campaigns share in common. Both have become months-long affairs; both cost sums of money that would have been unimaginable just a generation ago; and above all, both are now shaped tremendously by publicity strategists.

Most Academy members — like most Americans — do not follow these races nearly as closely as the people who cover them. Consequently, it has become imperative for publicity strategists to be able to summarize the “case” for their clients in the most succinct and easily digestible manner possible, so that when they do have voters’ attention they can seize the moment.

From conversations with strategists in both the political and cinematic arenas, I learned that the two oldest and most effective ways to do so are to:

1. Create and hammer home a short, general and easy-to-remember narrative describing their contender. For example…

• Obama: “the candidate who has shown good judgment in the past can be counted on to make good decisions in the future”
• McCain: “the candidate with vast experience can be trusted to handle unforeseeable scenarios better than a relative newcomer”

2. Put voters at ease with their contender by reminding them of precedents for such a candidate having been chosen and proven worthy of their confidence. For example…

• Obama: Abraham Lincoln, another Illinois lawyer-turned-lawmaker who rose above party politics; Franklin D. Roosevelt, who promised Americans a new deal; John F. Kennedy, a young and senator who won on a message of hope
• McCain: Teddy Roosevelt, a maverick unafraid to buck his party; Dwight D. Eisenhower, a military man who understood issues of national security; Ronald Reagan, an older man who reformed government

(Getting too specific with narratives makes it much harder to find precedents. Therefore, publicity strategists have learned that overarching themes and messages resonate much more effectively, so they tend to stick with them.)

Narratives and precedents are useful — to an extent — not only for promoting a contender, but also for assessing a contender’s viability. For that reason, I decided to compose a narrative for 2009′s top nine contenders in each acting category and identify four past nominees/winners who also fit it. As a lover of films past and present, I found this to be interesting, and I hope you do, too.

[Beware of spoilers!]

BEST ACTOR

JEFF BRIDGES (“Crazy Heart”)
Alcoholism impedes an entertainer’s career and personal life.

• Wallace Beery (“The Champ,” 1931/1932) WON
• James Mason (“A Star Is Born,” 1954)
• Peter O’Toole (“My Favorite Year,” (182)
• Robert Duvall (“Tender Mercies,” 1983) WON

GEORGE CLOONEY (“Up in the Air”)
A man who previously opted to be alone comes to embrace companionship.

• Humphrey Bogart (“The African Queen,” 1951) WON
• Jack Nicholson (“As Good As It Gets,” 1997) WON
• Bill Murray (“Lost in Translation,” 2003)
• Richard Jenkins (“The Visitor,” 2008)

DANIEL DAY-LEWIS (“Nine”)
An artist struggles to overcome demons of the mind while at work.

• Ronald Colman (“A Double Life,” 1947) WON
• Kirk Douglas (“Lust for Life,” 1955)
• Roy Scheider (“All That Jazz,” (1979)
• F. Murray Abraham (“Amadeus,” 1984) WON

COLIN FIRTH (“A Single Man”)
A man in despair considers ending his own life.

• James Stewart (“It’s a Wonderful Life,” 1946)
• George C. Scott (“The Hospital,” 1971)
• Nicolas Cage (“Leaving Las Vegas,” 1995) WON
• Mickey Rourke (“The Wrestler,” 2008)

BEN FOSTER (“The Messenger”)
A military man returns home from war haunted by his experiences.

• Fredric March (“The Best Years of Our Lives,” 1946) WON
• Robert De Niro (“The Deer Hunter,” 1978)
• Jon Voight (“Coming Home,” 1978) WON
• Tom Cruise (“Born on the Fourth of July,” 1989)

MORGAN FREEMAN (“Invictus”)
A man selflessly devotes his life to a cause larger than himself.

• Humphrey Bogart (“Casablanca,” 1943)
• Alexander Knox (“Wilson,” 1944)
• Ben Kingsley (“Gandhi,” 1982) WON
• Sean Penn (“Milk,” 2008) WON

VIGGO MORTENSEN (“The Road”)
A man is greatly tested but refuses to let go of his principles.

• Henry Fonda (“The Grapes of Wrath,” 1940)
• Gary Cooper (“High Noon,” 1952) WON
• Gregory Peck (“To Kill a Mockingbird,” 1962) WON
• Ben Kingsley (“Gandhi,” 1982) WON

JEREMY RENNER (“The Hurt Locker”)
A military leader with unflappable focus.

• Gary Cooper (“Sergeant York,” 1941) WON
• John Wayne (“Sands of Iwo Jima,” 1949)
• Alec Guinness (“The Bridge on the River Kwai,” 1957) WON
• Tom Hanks (“Saving Private Ryan,” 1998)

MICHAEL STUHLBARG (“A Serious Man”)
A decent family man’s life begins to unravel around him.

• Spencer Tracy (“Father of the Bride,” 1950)
• James Stewart (“It’s a Wonderful Life,” 1946)
• Tom Wilkinson (“In the Bedroom,” 2001)
• Will Smith (“The Pursuit of Happyness,” 2006)

BEST ACTRESS

SANDRA BULLOCK (“The Blind Side”)
A white woman and a black man develop an unlikely relationship.

• Elizabeth Hartman (“A Patch of Blue,” 1965)
• Jane Alexander (“The Great White Hope,” 1970)
• Jessica Tandy (“Driving Miss Daisy,” 1989) WON
• Julianne Moore (“Far from Heaven,” 2002)

ABBIE CORNISH (“Bright Star”)
A woman falls into a star-crossed love affair.

• Greta Garbo (“Camille,” 1936)
• Bette Davis (“Jezebel,” 1938) WON
• Ali MacGraw (“Love Story,” 1970)
• Kate Winslet (“Titanic,” 1997)

MARION COTILLARD (“Nine”)
A wife is cheated on by her husband.

• Janet Gaynor (“Sunrise,” 1927) WON
• Norma Shearer (“The Divorcee,” 1930) WON
• Joan Crawford (“Mildred Pierce,” 1945) WON
• Jill Clayburgh (“An Unmarried Woman,” 1978)

MAGGIE GYLLENHAAL (“Crazy Heart”)
A woman becomes involved with a man battling personal demons.

• Katharine Hepburn (“The African Queen,” 1951)
• Jane Fonda (“Coming Home,” 1978) WON
• Elizabeth Shue (“Leaving Las Vegas,” 1995)
• Reese Witherspoon (“Walk the Line,” 2005) WON

HELEN MIRREN (“The Last Station”)
A wife grows apart from but ultimately reconciles with her husband.

• Celia Johnson (“Brief Encounter,” 1946)
• Grace Kelly (“The Country Girl,” 1954) WON
• Katharine Hepburn (“The Lion in Winter,” 1968) WON
• Kathleen Turner (“Peggy Sue Got Married,” 1986)

MICHELLE MONAGHAN (“Trucker”)
A woman struggles with motherhood.

• Mary Tyler Moore (“Ordinary People,” 1980)
• Meryl Streep (“Sophie’s Choice,” 1982) WON
• Felicity Huffman (“Transamerica,” 2005)
• Kate Winslet (“Little Children,” 2006)

CAREY MULLIGAN (“An Education”)
A woman meets a man and learns to see the world anew.

• Claudette Colbert (“It Happened One Night,” 1934) WON
• Judy Garland (“The Wizard of Oz,” 1939) WON (Juvenile Oscar)
• Ginger Rogers (“Kitty Foyle,” 1940) WON
• Audrey Hepburn (“Roman Holiday,” 1953) WON

GABBY SIDIBE (“Precious”)
A woman is subjected to horrific mental and physical abuse.

• Whoopi Goldberg (“The Color Purple,” 1985)
• Holly Hunter (“The Piano,” 1993) WON
• Geena Davis (“Thelma & Louise,” 1991)
• Hilary Swank (“Boys Don’t Cry,” 1999) WON

MERYL STREEP (“Julie & Julia”)
A woman pursues her dreams and finds success against all odds.

• Katharine Hepburn (“Morning Glory,” 1930) WON
• Sissy Spacek (“Coal Miner’s Daughter,” 1980) WON
• Julia Roberts (“Erin Brokovich,” 2000) WON
• Hilary Swank (“Million Dollar Baby,” 2004) WON

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

ALEC BALDWIN (“It’s Complicated”)
A married man is tempted to leave his wife.

• Jack Warden (“Shampoo,” 1975)
• Michael Caine (“Hannah and Her Sisters,” 1986) WON
• Vincent Gardenia (“Moonstruck,” 1987)
• Thomas Haden Church (“Sideways,” 2003)

MATT DAMON (“Invictus”)
A decent man leads a group through tough times.

• H.B. Warner (“Lost Horizon,” 1937)
• Robert Mitchum (“The Story of G.I. Joe,” 1945)
• Ed Harris (“Apollo 13, 1995)
• Ian McKellen (“The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring,” 2001)

WOODY HARRELSON (“The Messenger”)
A hardass authority figure who eventually bonds with his charge.

• Louis Gossett, Jr. (“An Officer and a Gentleman,” 1982) WON
  
• Jack Palance (“City Slickers,” 1991) WON
• Gary Sinise (“Forrest Gump,” 1994)
• Matt Dillon (“Crash,” 2005)

ANTHONY MACKIE (“The Hurt Locker”)
A good man is greatly tested by a colleague.

• Joseph Schildkraut (“The Life of Emile Zola,” 1937) WON
• Gene Wilder (“The Producers,” 1968)
• Willem Dafoe (“Platoon,” 1986)
• Ethan Hawke (“Training Day,” 2001)

ALFRED MOLINA (“An Education”)
A simple working-class father concerned for his child(ren).

• Donald Crisp (“How Green Was My Valley,” 1941) WON
• John Marley (“Love Story,” 1970)
• Danny Aiello (“Do the Right Thing,” 1989)
• Christopher Walken (“Catch Me If You Can,” 2002)

CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER (“The Last Station”)
A celebrated literary figure.

• Jason Robards (“All the President’s Men,” 1976) WON
• Jason Robards (“Julia,” 1977) WON
• Jack Nicholson (“Reds,” 1981)
• Ed Harris (“The Hours,” 2002)

STANLEY TUCCI (“Julie & Julia”)
A husband stands by his wife through thick and thin.

• Claude Rains (“Mr. Skeffington,” 1944)
• Red Buttons (“Sayonara,” 1957) WON
• Jim Broadbent (“Iris,” 2001) WON
• John C. Reilly (“Chicago,” 2002)

STANLEY TUCCI (“The Lovely Bones”)
A mentally unstable man threatens society.

• Richard Widmark (“Kiss of Death,” 1947)
• Laurence Olivier (“Marathon Man,” 1976)
• Edward Norton (“Primal Fear,” 1996)
• Jackie Earle Haley (“Little Children,” 2006)

CHRISTOPH WALTZ (“Inglourious Basterds”)
A man is a particularly sadistic killer.

• Richard Widmark (“Kiss of Death,” 1947)
• Laurence Olivier (“Marathon Man,” 1976)
• Joe Pesci (“Goodfellas,” 1990) WON
• Ralph Fiennes (“Schindler’s List,” 1993)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

MARIAH CAREY (“Precious”)
A woman helps a younger friend through trying times.

• Hattie McDaniel (“Gone with the Wind,” 1939) WON
• Thelma Ritter (“Pillow Talk,” 1959)
• Frances McDormand (“North Country,” 2005)
• Adriana Barraza (“Babel,” 2006)

PENELOPE CRUZ (“Nine”)
A sexy, dancing seductress.

• Madeline Kahn (“Blazing Saddles,” 1974)
• Catherine Zeta-Jones (“Chicago,” 2002) WON
• Natalie Portman (“Closer,” 2004)
• Marisa Tomei (“The Wrestler,” 2008)

JUDI DENCH (“Nine”)
The protagonist’s feisty, elder voice of reason.

• Josephine Hull (“Harvey,” 1950) WON
• Thelma Ritter (“All About Eve,” 1950)
• Linda Hunt (“The Year of Living Dangerously,” 1983) WON
• Ruby Dee (“American Gangster,” 2007)

VERA FARMIGA (“Up in the Air”)
A woman engages in a passionate affair that she ultimately ends.

• Miliza Korjus (“The Great Waltz,” 1938)
• Ann Blyth (“Mildred Pierce,” 1945)
• Judy Davis (“Husbands and Wives,” 1992)
• Cate Blanchett (“Notes on a Scandal,” 2006)

ANNA KENDRICK (“Up in the Air”)
A young woman is a spunky know-it-all.

• Rita Moreno (“West Side Story,” 1961) WON
• Sally Kellerman (“M*A*S*H, 1970)
• Tatum O’Neal (“Paper Moon,” 1973) WON
• Marisa Tomei (“My Cousin Vinny,” 1992) WON

MO’NIQUE (“Precious”)
A woman proves unfit for motherhood.

• Jo Van Fleet (“East of Eden,” 1955) WON
• Angela Lansbury (“The Manchurian Candidate,” 1962)
• Meryl Streep (“Kramer vs. Kramer,” 1979) WON
• Amy Ryan (“Gone Baby Gone,” 2007)

JULIANNE MOORE (“A Single Man”)
A woman wants a man who wants someone else more.

• Cloris Leachman (“The Last Picture Show,” 1971) WON
• Jeannie Berlin (“The Heartbreak Kid,” 1974)
• Lee Grant (“Shampoo,” 1975) WON
• Michelle Williams (“Brokeback Mountain,” 2005)

NATALIE PORTMAN (“Brothers”)
A single mother raises her child(ren) under trying circumstances.

• Juanita Moore (“Imitation of Life,” 1959)
• Lily Tomlin (“Nashville,” 1975)
• Melinda Dillon (“Close Encounters of the Third Kind,” 1977)
• Holly Hunter (“Thirteen,” 2003)

SIGOURNEY WEAVER (“Avatar”)
A dedicated career woman.

• Mercedes McCambridge (“All the King’s Men,” 1949) WON
• Nina Foch (“Executive Suite,” 1954)
• Rachel Weisz (“The Constant Gardener,” 2005) WON
• Tilda Swinton (“Michael Clayton,” 2007) WON

Photos: Audrey Hepburn in “Roman Holiday” (1953) and Carey Mulligan in “An Education” (2009). Credits: Paramount and Sony Pictures Classics.