This evening, a friend wanted to know (a) what I thought it would take for a documentary to snag one of the slots in the newly-expanded best picture category, and (b) whether or not I thought any of this year’s documentaries stood a chance at doing so. Here was my response:

I don’t believe that a documentary will be among this year’s best picture nominees, even though there are now 10 slots in the category. For a doc to make the cut in future years, I suspect that it will have to be a rousing anti-establishment piece, like “Fahrenheit 9/11″ (2004) and/or a newsmaking social-conscience work, like “The Thin Blue Line” (1988) and/or a new take on an old doc-subgenre, like sports doc “Hoop Dreams” (1994) and nature doc “March of the Penguins” (2005). In my opinion, any one of those films might well have snagged a best picture nomination had today’s rules been in effect during their respective years of eligibility.

This year, “Capitalism: A Love Story” and “The Cove” seem to fit the first two descriptions and will probably generate some best picture votes, but I suspect that most voters will find the former too controversial and never see the latter at all. The only other doc with best picture aspirations is “This Is It,” the Michael Jackson concert doc, which fits my third description and has several other things going for it, too: (a) it has gotten so much free press that virtually everyone knows about it and most will eventually see it; (b) it is already a critical and commercial success; and (c) it is ineligible in the best doc category because it missed the Academy’s NY/LA screening deadline, which means that people who want to recognize it will have to do so in the best picture category. That all being said, I have my doubts that it will be most Oscar voters’ cup of tea.

UPDATE: Tom O’Neil, my former colleague at the Los Angeles Times, has posted an email from an Academy member who attended a Sunday screening of the film at the Academy’s Goldwyn Theater that was apparently filled to capacity. The Academy member reports “the most enthusiastic response I’ve ever witnessed in 40 years of Academy screenings… similar to but better than the reaction given to ‘Chicago’ a few years ago. Audience broke into applause at least 10 times. They were ‘mesmerized’ and gave the film an enormous reception as the credits rolled. The editing is brilliant. I predict it will be the first doc to ever make the best picture nomination list, especially now that there are 10 best pic noms.”

Photo: Michael Jackson in Kenny Ortega’s “This Is It.” Credit: Sony.