AND THE WINNER IS…

We’re still three months away from the announcement of this year’s Oscar nominees, so I get that it’s premature to be talking about winners. That being said, anyone who knows anything about the awards race knows that there are two — and only two — locks in the best actress category, Carey Mulligan (“An Education”) and Meryl Streep (“Julie & Julia”), so I believe it’s fair-game to begin pondering which will be in a stronger position down the homestretch.

First, a little refresher course on the ladies in question…

Mulligan

• Virtually unheard of a year ago. Had appeared on British television, played small part in “Pride and Prejudice” (2005), and was making Broadway debut supporting Kristin Scott Thomas in “The Seagull.”
• Things began to change at Sundance in January. “An Education,” in which Danish director Lone Scherfig cast her as central character Jenny, premiered and instantly spurred bidding war between several indie studios.
• Sony Pictures Classics nabbed film for around $3 million, took it on festival circuit (Berlin, Toronto, etc.), and began hearing same reaction everywhere it went: in their little film, a big star is born.
• As “An Education” is slowly released in theaters across America, look for Mulligan to bewitch audiences just as she does Peter Sarsgaard in film. No role has done as much for an actress as I expect this will do for Mulligan since Julia Roberts clicked in “Pretty Woman” (1990).
• Most apt comparison is even further back: Audrey Hepburn in “Roman Holiday” (1953). Audrey was — as Mulligan is — 24-years-young, British, and beautiful (in a gamine way that allowed her to appear both childlike and ladylike) when she gave breakthrough performance en route to best actress Oscar.
• Like Audrey in that film, Mulligan in this one comes to see world anew through eyes of man very different from herself, and in process comes of age before our eyes. By closing credits, she is less like innocent/carefree Audrey than battle-tested/worldly-wise Lauren Bacall (complete with low-voice), and audience cheers her as a survivor.
• Potential controversy: Mulligan’s character first seduced by Sarsgaard’s character when she’s underage and he’s not. With Roman Polanski’s situation causing heightened awareness of things like this, it could turn-off some.
• Oliver Stone’s highly-anticipated “Wall Street” sequel, in which Mulligan and boyfriend Shia LaBeouf are top-billed, will be released shortly after Oscars.

Streep

• Most respected actress alive, hands-down.
• Having consistently given great performances in major films for over 30 years (including five that received Oscar nods for best picture, three of which won), everyone already knows her name, and virtually everyone already likes her.
• Nora Ephron’s “Julie & Julia” is a big-budget/big-studio summer movie that every voter has heard about and nearly every voter will have seen — thus far, it’s made more than $100 million worldwide.
• In the film, Streep cooks up performance with all the ingredients that Oscar voters love: convincingly portraying a person who really lived and with whom we’re all familiar (Julia Child, “the woman who taught America to cook”); exhibiting major physical transformation (hair, posture, height); and mastering yet another accent.
• Best actress winners are very often women whose characters refuse to be victimized — like Streep’s Julia, who employs boundless energy and infectious optimism to disprove naysayers and achieve dreams.
• Thanks to her recent work in mainstream films — “The Manchurian Candidate” (2004), “The Devil Wears Prada” (2005), “Mamma Mia!” (2008), and now this — she has never been more popular at the box-office, especially with younger audiences.
• Though Streep has already won two Oscars, the record holder (Katharine Hepburn) won four, so it’s not like it would be unheard of to give her another.
• Nobody has received as many Oscar nominations — 15. Nobody has lost as many, either — 13.
• It’s been 27 years and 11 nominations — 12, if/when she gets one for “Julie & Julia” — since she last won. Many feel it’s time to correct that.

So who will win the 2009 best actress Oscar, Mulligan or Streep? As I’ve been indicating for several weeks now in my weekly projections — much to the consternation of a small but vocal group of Streep supporters — I give the edge to Mulligan. Here’s why…

In almost every close race for the best actress Oscar that has involved a pretty youngster who has never previously won (like Mulligan) and a respected veteran who has previously won (like Streep), the pretty youngster has prevailed.

Don’t believe me? Check it out…

• Helen Hayes in “The Sin of Madelon Claudet” d. Marie Dressler in “Emma” (1931/1932)
• Luise Rainer in “The Great Ziegfeld” d. Norma Shearer in “Romeo and Juliet” (1936)
• Judy Holliday in “Born Yesterday” d. Bette Davis in “All About Eve” (1950)
• Elizabeth Taylor in “Butterfield 8” d. Greer Garson in “Sunrise at Campobello” (1960)
• Anne Bancroft in “The Miracle Worker” d. Katharine Hepburn in “Long Day’s Journey Into Night” (1962)
• Julia Roberts in “Erin Brokovich” d. Ellen Burstyn in “Requiem for a Dream” (2000)
• Halle Berry in “Monster’s Ball” d. Judi Dench in “Iris” and Sissy Spacek in “In the Bedroom” (2001)
• Charlize Theron in “Monster” d. Diane Keaton in “Something’s Gotta Give” (2008)
• Marion Cotillard in “La Vie En Rose” d. Julie Christie in “Away from Her” (2007)
• Kate Winslet in “The Reader” d. Meryl Streep in “Doubt” (2008)

In fact, the only instances in which a respected veteran beat a pretty youngster were when the respected veteran had never before won (something that obviously does not apply to Streep) and the respected veteran’s film was nominated for best picture (something that is not at all a sure bet for “Julie & Julia”)…

• Joan Crawford in “Mildred Pierce” d. Gene Tierney in “Leave Her to Heaven” (1945)
• Shirley MacLaine in “Terms of Endearment” d. Debra Winger in “Terms of Endearment” (1983)
• Jessica Tandy in “Driving Miss Daisy” d. Michelle Pfeiffer “The Fabulous Baker Boys” (1989)
• Helen Mirren in “The Queen” d. Kate Winslet in “Little Children” (2006)

The only two exceptions to this rule involved extenuating circumstances that do not apply to this year’s race…

• Ingrid Bergman in “Anastasia” d. Carroll Baker in “Baby Doll” (1956), largely as a symbolic gesture to welcome Bergman back to Hollywood after years in exile for having had an extramarital affair and giving birth to a child out of wedlock
• Katharine Hepburn in “Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner?” d. Anne Bancroft in “The Graduate” and Faye Dunaway in “Bonnie and Clyde” (1967), largely as a symbolic gesture to offer Hepburn condolences upon the death of her co-star and longtime lover Spencer Tracy

Some might argue that Streep has been good for long enough and waited long enough (27 years) for another Oscar, and it would be hard to disagree. But the Academy kept her biggest rivals for the title of “greatest actress of all-time” waiting for even longer — Helen Hayes waited for 39 years between her best actress win for “The Sin of Madelon Claudet” (1931/1932) and best supporting actress win for “Airport” (1970), and Katharine Hepburn waited for 34 years between her best actress wins for “Morning Glory” (1933) and “Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner?” (1967).

I love Meryl Streep as much as anyone, but my guess is that — thanks to Carey Mulligan — her wait for a third Oscar will have to go on for at least one more year.

(Needless to say, I reserve the right to amend this projection as we get closer to the finish line!)

Photos: Carey Mulligan in “An Education” (Sony Pictures Classics) and Meryl Streep in “Julie & Julia” (Columbia).