5 Responses to “THIS WEEK’S PROJECTIONS”

1. 

   Robert Hamer 21. Oct, 2008 5:32 am #

   Honestly, I think Slumdog Millionaire is going to take the top prize. I know that it’s a longshot, but seeing as how audiences are so depressed these days over the economic crisis and the grim prospects of the war, if Slumdog is as uplifting as you say it is, then it could be exactly what Americans and Academy voters want to see this year. Granted, last year the Best Picture was (deservedly so) No Country for Old Men, a relentlessly bleak and dark film, and the extremely grim and intense The Dark Knight has become a cultural phenomenon and will definitely be a Best Pic nominee (to the dread of “awards pundits” like yourself), but I think the zeitgeist this year is looking for a film to bring us up, not down. That’s why these are my selections for this season, with to top choice my projected winner:

   BEST PICTURE:
   *Slumdog Millionaire* [It's like the Obama of movies; serious, but uplifting. It's the one to beat as far as I'm concerned]
   *The Dark Knight* [If a monster movie like Jaws, an animated musical like Beauty and the Beast, a fantasy trilogy like The Lord of the Rings, and a pulpy adventure film like Raiders of the Lost Ark can get a Best Picture nod, why not a superhero epic, especially one that has had such an explosive impact in this country?]
   *Milk* [I have to admit, this does look great, even if it reportedly skirts the major event that made Harvey Milk famous - his murder trial]
   *The Curious Case of Benjamin Button* [For two reasons: one, excellent buzz, and two, to make up for Zodigate last year]
   *Doubt* [I'm a little biased here, because I really liked the play, but come on, can you really do wrong with Hoffman and Streep?]

   BEST DIRECTOR
   *Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire*
   *Christopher Nolan – The Dark Knight*
   *Gus Van Sant – Milk*
   *David Fincher – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button*
   *Darren Aronofsky – The Wrestler* [So why The Wrestler for Best Director and Doubt for Picture? Well, to me, I just don't see voters nominating a play adaptation for Best Director, particularly since the director wrote the thing. Aronofsky, on the other hand, is a respected and previously un-nominated director who helmed a small film about a washed up pro wrestler, which just doesn't scream "Best Picture lock" to me. That is why I believe this split will happen]

   BEST ACTOR
   *Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler* [A recent clip I saw where Rourke is spilling his guts to his daughter sealed the deal for me]
   *Sean Penn – Milk* [Apparently, he has the guy down pat, and maybe he'll actually deserve it this time to make up for his win for Mystic Ham]
   *Josh Brolin – W.* [I hated W., but Josh Brolin was an awesome Bush. I really hope he gets this one]
   *Will Smith – Seven Pounds* [He's Will Smith, I mean seriously, who doesn't love to vote for the last true movie star in America?]
   *Dev Patel – Slumdog Millionaire* [Why is he in your Supporting Actor projections? Isn't he the main character? Anyway, to me, this kid is the next Ellen Page. An unknown one minute, an audience favorite the next.]

   BEST ACTRESS
   *Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married* [I must confess, I haven't seen this movie yet, so I'm not sure how good her performance really is, but everything I have heard about the film makes me believe that she is the front-runner for now]
   *Meryl Streep – Doubt* [Streep can pretty much read the phone book and get a nomination, and with an interesting character like Sister Aloysius, I'm pretty confident in this pick, as you are]
   *Kristin Scott Thomas – I’ve Loved You So Long* [Haven't seen it, but the trailer looks great, and Thomas hasn't been nominated in what, twelve years now?]
   *Kate Winslet – Revolutionary Road* [Yelling, screaming, family drama crap. Everyone is saying what a strong competition year it is for actresses, I respectfully disagree. I see another acting Oscar for Winslet this year...]
   *Cate Blanchett – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button* [I see no Oscar-worthy performances in Benjamin Button, but like you've written before, she always gets accolades]

   BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
   *Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight* [The stuff of nightmares]
   *Liev Schreiber – Defiance* [He looks intense in the trailers, and Zwick's films tend to do well in the Supporting Actor categories]
   *James Franco – Milk* [He's a really good actor, and I think he'll do well in this movie]
   *Robert Downey, Jr. – Tropic Thunder* [The more I think about this character the more I'm reminded of Kevin Kline's win for A Fish Called Wanda. Sometimes a comedic performance is so brilliant it transcends Oscar genre bias]
   *David Kross – The Reader* [Huge buzz for this kid, but I almost don't want him to be nominated. I mean, his character is basically in one erotic love scene after another with Kate Winslet, and that deserves special recognition?]

   BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
   *Kate Winslet – The Reader* [If the Oscar campaign has really shifted from lead to supporting for Kate Winslet in The Reader, she is absolutely the front-runner based on her fascinating character alone. Her only real competition that I see is...]
   *Viola Davis – Doubt* [See the stage play and you'll understand]
   *Rebecca Hall – Vicky Christina Barcelona* [Cruz has the "fun" role, but Hall's is the most believable and interesting, and I hope she isn't overlooked for the "crazy" performance]
   *Debra Winger – Rachel Getting Married* [Maybe Rosemary DeWitt has a better chance, I don't know, but most of the reviews seem to rave about Winger more so I'm going with her. Besides, Hollywood loves a career comeback]
   *Taraji P. Henson – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button* [She must be something special if she's on every pundit's list, but then again, these same pundits also made it their personal mission to deny The Dark Knight a Best Picture nomination, so maybe I'm wrong to follow their lead on this one]

   BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
   Simon Beaufoy – Slumdog Millionaire
   Christopher Nolan and Jonathan Nolan – The Dark Knight
   Eric Roth – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
   John Patrick Shanley – Doubt
   David Hare – The Reader

   BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
   Dustin Lance Black – Milk
   Robert D. Siegel – The Wrestler
   Nick Schenk – Gran Torino
   Jenny Lumet – Rachel Getting Married
   Andrew Stanton – WALL-E
2. 

   Scott Feinberg 21. Oct, 2008 5:59 am #

   Robert, Thanks for your very thorough comment/analysis. I definitely hear you loud and clear on the audience appeal of “Slumdog,” which you know I loved… I think it *could* catch fire and soar to the front, but it faces a bit of a tough sell because it has no “name” stars, making it a tough sell for even Fox Searchlight. My guess is that strong word of mouth will spread like wildfire and turn it into something like “My Big Fat Greek Wedding” or “Juno” or something, which will certainly get it nominated. Whether it wins or not is entirely dependent on the quality of the few films I have ranked ahead of it, which nobody has seen yet. If they are anything but *extraordinary,* then look out! But, as I learned the hard way last year with “Juno,” I just have to reign in my own feelings about the film a little more because otherwise I can probably convince myself and you that I’m right when in fact it’s just wishful thinking. Let’s wait a little longer and see!
3. 

   Anonymous 23. Oct, 2008 4:48 am #

   Well I believe we can´t forget Blindness, VAntage Point, Burn After Reading, THE MIST and The Happening.
4. 

   Scott Feinberg 23. Oct, 2008 4:52 am #

   With respect, I believe that’s *exactly* what we can do… never, ever gonna happen.
5. 

   Anonymous 30. Oct, 2008 4:40 am #

   With respect again, THE MIST and VANTAGE POINT, cannot be forgottable…!

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