AND THE WINNER IS…

You know you’re getting close to the big show when Sasha Stone of AwardsDaily begins filling in her annual “Big Bad Predictions Chart,“ which went up today. It is the best place to see what/who all of the major pundits and critics are predicting for wins on Sunday night. The early consensus seems to be No Country, Coens, Day-Lewis, Christie, Bardem, Blanchett, No Country, and Juno, but the truth, to a large extent, is—as screenwriter William Goldman first said and Sasha likes to quote—”Nobody knows anything.” (AOL’s great Moviefone site has also posted a sampling of pundits’ choices as part of their Academy Awards coverage.)

We’re at that time right before the Oscars when it’s easy to second-guess the frontrunners… usually without much cause. Still, there are a few possible upset scenarios to which I believe we are not giving fair consideration. By no means am I saying that all—or even any—of these are going to play out, but I’m not sure we should be totally shocked if they do. Consider a few of these in the form of a headline we might read on Monday morning and then ask yourself if they really sound as absurd as we have been treating them…

BELOVED VET HAL HOLBROOK WINS BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR!
Yes, I know this is supposedly Javier Bardem’s to lose, but Holbrook is a really sweet guy, has had a very distinguished career, and has been around forever. You know who else has been around forever? A lot of old-timers who are in the Academy. How do I know this? Because I talk to them—they are the focus of a lot of my work, and they tell me they are not getting calls from other prognosticators, which may be a big part of why we miss certain upsets. (It’s like regular pollsters who fail to factor in people who have a cell phone and no land line… it skews polling.) What I also know is that many more have worked with and/or come to personally know Holbrook, who has been in the industry for 65 years, than Bardem, who is relatively new, and who many voters couldn’t pick him out of a police lineup. Further, I know and they know that Holbrook, at 83, probably won’t have another shot, whereas Bardem, at 38, probably will. Bottom line? When you’ve been able to stay in this business—let alone stay successful in this business—for as long as Holbrook, it is largely because you’ve made a lot of good friends in high places, and I expect that more of them came through for him on their ballots than we anticipated.

13 YEAR OLD SAOIRSE RONAN SHOCKS PUNDITS, WINS BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS!
Everyone knows this race was wide-open, but the one contender whom most have failed to take seriously may actually make a lot of sense. Cate Blanchett, Amy Ryan, and Ruby Dee are (or are almost) the only nominees from their films, which may not bode well for them, but Tilda Swinton is part of the Michael Clayton bandwagon, which picked up an impressive seven nominations, including Best Picture. But, wait a second—so did Atonement! And the best thing about that film, by far, was? Ronan! But is Ronan too young? Hogwash. This category has historically embraced youth as much as any—winners Tatum O’Neil (10) and Anna Paquin (13) both were younger than Ronan. Additionally, Ronan is actually much more mature than her character, as evidenced in several impressive video interviews. Academy members clearly noticed her talent, since they opted to nominate her over her veteran co-star Vanessa Redgrave. Sure, they may not know how to say her name, but I expect more to pull the trigger for her than we have been guessing.

QUIRKY ARTIST-FILMMAKER JULIAN SCHNABEL WINS BEST DIRECTOR!
Yes, it would seem to be the Coens’ time, and yes, Schnabel is a weird dude, but people know who he is, they respect his passion, and if they saw his movie—perhaps even after nominations came to an end—then they know that he is largely responsible for a unique masterpiece. He already surprised us by winning the Golden Globe, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some voters seize this opportunity to reward The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. Who knows, the difference might even be a few voters who felt badly for him over the Sean Young incident!

ADMIRED ACTRESS LAURA LINNEY SURPRISES EVEN HERSELF WITH OSCAR WIN!
You’re an Academy member. Suppose you think Ellen Page and the whole Juno generation are a bunch of smartasses who need a good slap… and suppose you don’t like watching movies with subtitles and therefore opted not to watch Marion Cotillard in La Vie En Rose… and suppose you are one of the voters who like Julie Christie enough to nominate her but not to vote for her—just a decade ago, she was nominated for Afterglow and lost to… Helen Hunt. If those circumstances are applicable to you, then you have pretty limited options: you can vote for Cate Blanchett in the atrocious Elizabeth: The Golden Age, or you can vote for Laura Linney for another of her wonderful performances in The Savages… I think we know who you’re voting for. But let’s forget about all that aforementioned supposing and just suppose that you actually watched and objectively gauged the nominees and their films, are not swayed by precursor pressure, and simply want to reward a great actress who has paid her dues but never been nominated… I think you might arrive at the same answer. If this thing really is a three-way horserace between Christie, Page, and Cotillard, then it may well be that winning the category will not require very many votes, and Linney has many loyal backers…

HEADLINE
A PREGNANT TEEN CAN STOP
WHAT’S COMING… FRIEND-O!
with Predictions and Explanations for Each Category
(Either Posted or On Their Way)

“Even in the contest between man and steer,
the issue is not certain.”
—No Country for Old Men

BEST PICTURE
PROJECTION (1) JUNO (Fox Searchlight) (2) No Country for Old Men (Miramax) (3) Michael Clayton (Warner Brothers) (4) There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) (5) Atonement (Focus Features)
WHY? Accessibility. I just watched No Country for the fourth time and some things are still unclear, not least of all the meaning of the ending; most Academy members will watch it once, if at all, and probably feel the same way. I understand and respect the point the movie is trying to make, but I also know the Academy likes its Best Pictures to have clear, definable, and above all satisfying messages, and this one does not. It certainly does have the smart-money behind it, having all but swept the critics groups and guilds, but I just don’t believe they have as much bearing on the Academy’s choices as they once did—the huge upset by Crash over Brokeback proved a precursor sweep is not irreversible and that Academy members vote the way their hearts tell them (not the critics), and this year’s poor predictions of the Academy’s Best Picture lineup by the guilds (PGA missed Atonement, DGA missed Juno and Atonement, and SAG missed Atonement, Juno, Michael Clayton, and There Will Be Blood) exposes their memberships’ lack of ideological and/or personnel overlap with the Academy’s. So, if not No Country, then who? The anti-No Country vote may exceed the pro-No Country, but does any single rival inspire enough passion to take it down? The one with the best shot is the one that couldn’t be more different, Juno, not Blood (which appeals to the same core audience and will therefore draw from the same pool of voters), not Clayton (which engenders respect but not excitement), and not Atonement (which fits the old Best Picture model, not the new). Sure, Juno would have to break a few rules—it doesn’t have an Editing nomination, whereas No Country and There Will Be Blood do; it doesn’t lead the field in nominations, whereas No Country and There Will Be Blood do; and it is a comedy, whereas No Country and There Will Be Blood are not. But the key to 2007 may be that that none of the Best Pic nominees fit the traditional models of what a Best Pic winner is supposed to look like, and so at the end of the day I think voters will break towards the one they simply enjoyed the most. It’s not like Juno would be coming out of nowhere either—it has the Ebert/Sarris seal-of-approval; it has earned more than twice what any of its rivals have at the box-office; it did snag an essential Best Director nomination; and, at an unusually dark time for our country when our people are forced to confront violence and serious issues everyday, it offers an escape and a reason to hope. (Hey, it’s working for Obama!) Even though the rest of the world is screaming “No Country!”—and might well be right—it just doesn’t ring true to me. I’ve been on board with Juno since it was conceived in Toronto, I’ve watched it get bigger over nine viewings and a full awards season since, and I’m not about to abort it a week before its due to deliver.

BEST DIRECTOR
PROJECTION (1) ETHAN COEN, JOEL COEN (No Country for Old Men) (2) Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly) (3) Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood) (4) Jason Reitman (Juno) (5) Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton)
WHY? Opportunity. Directors have never been as widely known and appreciated as they are today. This means that when some of the best do awards-worthy work, the media is sure to remind us whether or not they have previously received their due from the Academy. In some cases, voters are guilt-tripped into righting old wrongs (as was the case with Martin Scorsese last year); in other cases, voters face pressure not to make up for past snubs as much as to seize a passable opportunity to make a great filmmaker an Oscar winner so they don’t have to worry about coming back to them on a less deserving occasion in the future. The latter is the category into which the brothers Coen fall—two of the most popular and respected auteurs of their time, they do not typically put out Oscar bait, and now that they have their supporters believe it is time to act. Their shyness and general aversion to awards campaigning has not kept them from winning this year’s WGA, DGA, or PGA honors, and it should not keep them from locking up the Oscar, either, regardless of the outcome of the Best Picture race, especially considering everyone else in the race is a first-time nominee. That being said, I have gauged surprisingly strong support for artist-director Schnabel, despite the fact that his film was snubbed for Best Pic, so look out for him. Anderson has his own fiercely loyal backers, but is probably a bit too young to threaten. Reitman is here on only his second time out and will probably have to put in a bit more time. And rookie Gilroy is still best known as a writer, not a director, which hurts him.

BEST ACTOR
PROJECTION (1) DANIEL DAY-LEWIS (There Will Be Blood) (2) George Clooney (Michael Clayton) (3) Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd) (4) Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah) (5) Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises)
WHY? Reverence.I can’t think of any recent actor who accrued a greater sense of mystique or legend at a younger age than Day-Lewis. Even his fellow nominees are amazed by his ability to create from within himself a total stranger, and it is this sense of awe that puts him on another plane than the competition. Clooney’s movie and performance are more endearing, which gives him some hope, and Depp has never won before, which gives him a glimmer, too. but if Day-Lewis’ performance and film did not alone seal the deal for him then his classy speeches and unprecedented willingness to play the game this awards season probably did.

BEST ACTRESS
PROJECTION (1) JULIE CHRISTIE (Away from Her) (2) Ellen Page (Juno) (3) Marion Cotillard (La Vie En Rose) (4) Laura Linney (The Savages) (5) Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: The Golden Age)
WHY? Familiarity. In the race of the night, I suspect most voters will eventually break towards the ‘safe’ option, beloved past winner and sentimental favorite Christie, over relative newcomers Cotillard or Page. The odd thing is that Page was much more widely-seen and Cotillard was much better, and both were in their movies much more (Christie disappears for about half of hers), but voters have seen or read about Christie winning precursor after precursor, and even if they didn’t see her movie they will feel much more comfortable checking off her name than a promising youngster or a foreign stranger. (The Adapted Screenplay nod for Away from Her proves that a surprisingly high number of voters did see and like the movie, not just Christie.) The general sentiment is that the younger contenders—Page is only 20 and Cotillard only 32—will have other chances, whereas this may be the last go-around for Christie, who is 66 and only works once a decade or so. But this is no done-deal. Cotillard has the momentum down the stretch, having overcome the limited audience of a subtitled-film to win at BAFTA over Christie. Page, meanwhile, may ride some coattails of Juno‘s widespread support. The real wild-card scenario that nobody has dared to discuss is a true three-way divide paving the way for respected vet Linney, who has a very loyal fan base and has never won.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
PROJECTION (1) JAVIER BARDEM (No Country for Old Men) (2) Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton) (3) Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild) (4) Philip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson’s War) (5) Casey Affleck (The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
PROJECTION (1) RUBY DEE (American Gangster) (2) Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton) (3) Cate Blanchett (I’m Not There) (4) Saoirse Ronan (Atonement) (5) Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
PROJECTION (1) ETHAN COEN, JOEL COEN (No Country for Old Men) (2) Ronald Harwood (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly) (3) Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood) (4) Sarah Polley (Away from Her) (5) Christopher Hampton (Atonement)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
PROJECTION (1) DIABLO CODY (Juno) (2) Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton) (3) Brad Bird, Jan Pinkava (Ratatouille) (4) Nancy Oliver (Lars and the Real Girl) (5) Tamara Jenkins (The Savages)

BEST FOREIGN FILM
PROJECTION (1) THE COUNTERFEITTERS (Austria) (2) 12 (Russia) (3) Katyn (Poland) (4) Beaufort (Israel) (5) Mongol (Kazakhstan)

BEST ANIMATED FILM (FEATURE)
PROJECTION (1) RATATOUILLE (Disney) (2) Persepolis (Sony Pictures Classics) (3) Surf’s Up (Columbia)

BEST ANIMATED FILM (SHORT)
PROJECTION (1) PETER AND THE WOLF (2) Madame Tutli-Putli (3) Meme les Pigeons Vont au Paradis (4) My Love (5) I Met the Walrus

BEST LIVE ACTION FILM (SHORT)
PROJECTION (1) LE MOZART DES PICKPOCKETS (2) Tanghi Argentini (3) At Night (4) The Tonto Woman (5) Il Supplente

BEST DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)
PROJECTION (1) SICKO (The Weinstein Company) (2) No End in Sight (Magnolia) (3) Taxi to the Darkside (THINKFilm) (4) War/Dance (THINKFilm) (5) Operation Homecoming (Documentary Group)

BEST DOCUMENTARY (SHORT)
PROJECTION (1) FREEHELD (2) La Corona (3) Salim Baba (4) Sari’s Mother

BEST ART DIRECTION
PROJECTION (1) ATONEMENT (Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer) (2) There Will Be Blood (Jack Fish, Jim Erickson) (3) Sweeney Todd (Dante Ferretti, Francesca Lo Schiavo) (4) The Golden Compass (Dennis Gassner, Anna Pinnock) (5) American Gangster (Documentary Group)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
PROJECTION (1) NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN (Roger Deakins) (2) The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Janusz Kaminski) (3) There Will Be Blood (Robert Elswit) (4) Atonement (Seamus McGarvey) (5) The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Roger Deakins)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
PROJECTION (1) ATONEMENT (Jacqueline Durran) (2) Sweeney Todd (Colleen Atwood) (3) Elizabeth: The Golden Age (Elizabeth Byrne) (4) La Vie En Rose (Marit Allen) (5) Across the Universe (Albert Wolsky)

BEST FILM EDITING
PROJECTION (1) NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN (Ethan Coen, Joel Coen as Roderick Jaynes) (2) There Will Be Blood (Dylan Tichenor) (3) The Bourne Ultimatum (Christopher Rouse) (4) The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Juliette Welfling) (5) Into the Wild (Jay Cassidy)

BEST MAKEUP
PROJECTION (1) LA VIE EN ROSE (Jan Archibald, Didier Lavergne) (2) Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End (Ve Neill, Martin Samuel) (3) Norbit (Rick Baker, Kazuhiro Tsuji)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
PROJECTION (1) RATATOUILLE (Michael Giacchino) (2) Atonement (Dario Marianelli) (3) The Kite Runner (Alberto Iglesias) (4) Michael Clayton (James Newton Howard) (5) 3:10 to Yuma (Marco Beltrami)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
PROJECTION (1) “FALLING SLOWLY” (Once) (2) “That’s How You Know” (Enchanted) (3) “Happy Working Song” (Enchanted) (4) “So Close” (Enchanted) (5) “Raise It Up” (August Rush)

BEST SOUND EDITING
PROJECTION (1) TRANSFORMERS (Mike Hopkins, Ethan Van der Ryn) (2) No Country for Old Men (Skip Lievsay) (3) There Will Be Blood (Christopher Scarabosio, Matthew Wood) (4) Ratatouille (Mike Silvers, Randy Thom) (5) The Bourne Ultimatum (Per Hallberg, Karen Baker Landers)

BEST SOUND MIXING
PROJECTION (1) TRANSFORMERS (Peter J. Devlin, Kevin O’Connell, Greg P. Russell) (2) No Country for Old Men (Craig Berkey, Peter Kurland, Skip Lievsay, Greg Orloff) (3) Ratatouille (Doc Kane, Michael Semanick, Randy Thom) (4) The Bourne Ultimatum (Kirk Francis, Scott Millan, David Parker) (5) 3:10 to Yuma (David Giammarco, Paul Massey, Jim Stuebe)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
PROJECTION (1) TRANSFORMERS (Scott Benza, Russell Earl, John Frazier) (2) Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End (John Frazier, Charles Gibson, Hal Hickel, John Knoll) (3) The Golden Compass (Michael Fink, Ben Morris, Bill Westenhofer, Trevor Wood)

As I prepare to finalize my own predictions, I thought I’d make a few more calls to friends who are also Academy members to see who/what they ended up voting for on their ballots. I will add to this list as I hear back from them…

ACTRESS
A legendary star of the stage and screen who accumulated several Oscar nominations and one win during the Golden Age…

• Best Picture: Atonement
• Best Director: Ethan Coen, Joel Coen (No Country for Old Men)
• Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)
• Best Actress: Marion Cotillard (La Vie En Rose)
• Best Supporting Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson’s War)
• Best Supporting Actress: Ruby Dee (American Gangster)
• Best Adapted Screenplay: Christopher Hampton (Atonement)
• Best Original Screenplay: Brad Bird, Jan Pinkava (Ratatouille)

Other sentiments: “Really liked Atonement“; “loved Ratatouille“; had no reservations about watching La Vie En Rose due to subtitles; was not bothered by the ending of No Country; is supporting Dee “because of the performance,” not any sense of debt

WRITER
A screenwriter who won an Oscar during the seventies…

• Best Picture: Juno
• Best Director: Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)
• Best Actor: Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah)
• Best Actress: Ellen Page (Juno)
• Best Supporting Actor: Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)
• Best Supporting Actress: Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton)
• Best Adapted Screenplay: Ronald Harwood (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)
• Best Original Screenplay: Nancy Oliver (Lars and the Real Girl)

Other sentiments: Thought Juno was “a wonderful film”; hated There Will Be Blood and “turned it off” before the end; found No Country to be glorification of violence; went into Diving Bell hating Schnabel and came out respecting his unique vision and Harwood’s screenplay; was “thrilled” Tommy Lee Jones got nominated; “very tempted” to vote for Cody, but feels Oliver’s screenplay was the toughest to make work, and that she succeeded

ACTOR
One of the greatest character actors ever who, ironically, won an Oscar for a leading role

• Best Picture: No Country for Old Men
• Best Director: Ethan Coen, Joel Coen (No Country for Old Men)
• Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)
• Best Actress: Julie Christie (Away from Her)
• Best Supporting Actor: Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild)
• Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett (I’m Not There)
• Best Adapted Screenplay: Ethan Coen, Joel Coen (No Country for Old Men)
• Best Original Screenplay: Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton)

Other sentiments: “They don’t make ‘em like we used to make ‘em,” but No Country was “not too shabby”; “the young guy who played the oilman” did “a pretty terrific job”; Juno was “alright, but left you wanting more”; voting for Holbrook “because of his longevity, and he’s done some mighty, mighty fine work… not for his performance or anything, although that wasn’t bad either”

A scene from the Brazilian film The Elite Squad

The 58th annual Berlin Film Festival has awarded its highest honor, the Golden Bear for Best Film, to Tropa de Elite (The Elite Squad), a Brazilian film about police corruption and gang violence in the South American country that will be distributed stateside by The Weinstein Company. (Some may recall that the film became a huge underground hit on the streets of Rio de Janeiro after police tried to keep it out of theaters.) The legendary filmmaker Constantin Costa-Gavras presided over this year’s Jury and presented the honor to the film’s distinguished director Jose Padhila (Bus 174).

The presumptive favorite going into voting was the American film There Will Be Blood, director Paul Thomas Anderson‘s critically-acclaimed film about a megalomaniac oilman at the turn-of-the-century. It ended up receiving two Silver Bears—Best Director (to Anderson) and Best Sound (to composer Johnny Greenwood).

S.O.P.: Standard Operating Procedure, the much-anticipated Abu Ghraib film by Oscar winner Errol Morris that became the first documentary to screen in competition in Berlin, received the Jury Grand Prix Silver Bear.

For a list of all 22 films that were in competition, click here. For a list of the winners, click here.

Check back SOON!

Last week’s British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) Awards offered us two major surprises: French-born Marion Cotillard upset hometown favorite Julie Christie (Away from Her) to win Best Actress, while British-born underdog Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton) prevailed over presumptive front-runners and fellow Oscar nominees Cate Blanchett (I’m Not There) and Saoirse Ronan (Atonement), as well as Kelly MacDonald (No Country for Old Men) and Samantha Morton (Control).

The gorgeous-as-always Cotillard was, like most pundits, visibly shocked upon hearing her name called. Unfortunately, she was never quite able to collect herself and bumbled her way through her remarks. While this was cute for BAFTA, I hope someone has since helped her to prepare a real acceptance speech in case she pulls off the same shocker at the Oscars. Rival Christie, who is briefly shown in this clip looking on as Cotillard accepts the honor, gave a real winner of a victory speech at SAG, and—0dd as it may seem—this stuff can really count for something to some voters…

Swinton certainly could have handled herself better, as well. Anyone who has met her knows she is a really lovely lady, but she didn’t make the most favorable impression on those who have not. She was dressed in a bizarre yellow outfit that looked like a cross between a frock and a backpack and made her journey to the podium a bit tedious. She offered some jokes that didn’t really make sense. And then, worst of all, she thanked her agent above all others and promised to give him the statue that had just been bestowed upon her—not the most endearing, heart-warming sentiment one can share in such a moment. (Afterward, she also volunteered some information about her personal life that Sasha Stone enjoyed, but that are undoubtedly going to weird out more Academy members than they turn on.)

So where do these two super-talented actresses go from here? Does a BAFTA win indicate that there are similar groundswells with the Academy? It’s possible. I think an Oscar win by Cotillard would be more deserved but less likely than one by Swinton, but we shall see…

Based on all available information, I am now of the belief that one of three scenarios will play out on Oscar night. They are…

SCENARIO 1:
CONVENTIONAL WISDOM HOLDS TRUE
Best Picture: No Country for Old Men
Best Director: Coen, Coen (No Country for Old Men)
Best Actor: Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)
Best Actress: Christie (Away from Her)
Best Supporting Actor: Bardem (No Country for Old Men)
Best Supporting Actress: Dee (American Gangster)
Best Adapted Screenplay: Coen, Coen (No Country for Old Men)
Best Original Screenplay: Cody (Juno)

SCENARIO 2:
MICHAEL CLAYTON SURGES
Best Picture: Michael Clayton
Best Director: Coen, Coen (No Country for Old Men)
Best Actor: Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)
Best Actress: Christie (Away from Her)
Best Supporting Actor: Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)
Best Supporting Actress: Swinton (Michael Clayton)
Best Adapted Screenplay: Coen, Coen (No Country for Old Men)
Best Original Screenplay: Gilroy (Michael Clayton)

SCENARIO 3:
NO COUNTRY FAILS TO RESONATE
Best Picture: Juno
Best Director: Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)
Best Actor: Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)
Best Actress: Page (Juno)
Best Supporting Actor: Bardem (No Country for Old Men)
Best Supporting Actress: Dee (American Gangster)
Best Adapted Screenplay: Harwood (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)
Best Original Screenplay: Cody (Juno)

What are you thinking?