THIS WEEK’S PROJECTIONS
26 Nov
▲ (Positive momentum) ▼ (Negative momentum) NEW (New to the category)
NOTE: I am choosing to believe David Poland’s breaking report that Harvey Weinstein plans to campaign for Cate Blanchett (I’m Not There) for Best Actress, not Best Supporting Actress, but I have contacted the studio to seek formal confirmation.
BEST PICTURE
Projected Nominees
(1) Juno (Fox Searchlight)
(2) Atonement (Focus Features)
(3) The Kite Runner (Paramount Classics) ▲
(4) American Gangster (Universal)
(5) Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage)
Major Threats
(6) The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Miramax) ▲
(7) No Country for Old Men (Miramax)
(8) Charlie Wilson’s War (Universal) ▼
(9) Michael Clayton (Warner Brothers) ▲
(10) Once (Fox Searchlight) ▲
(11) Sweeney Todd (DreamWorks)
(12) There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage)
(13) Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead (Think Film) ▼
(14) The Savages (Fox Searchlight) ▲
In the Mix
(15) The Great Debaters (The Weinstein Company)
(16) I’m Not There (The Weinstein Company) ▲
(17) Hairspray (New Line)
(18) Eastern Promises (Focus Features)
(19) Lars and the Real Girl (Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer)
(20) In the Valley of Elah (Warner Independent)
(21) The Bucket List (Warner Brothers)
(22) Gone Baby Gone (Miramax)
(23) 3:10 to Yuma (Lions Gate)
(24) The Golden Compass (New Line)
(25) Zodiac (Paramount)
BEST DIRECTOR
Projected Nominees
(1) Ridley Scott (American Gangster) ▲
(2) Joe Wright (Atonement)
(3) Ethan Coen, Joel Coen (No Country for Old Men)
(4) Marc Forster (The Kite Runner) ▲
(5) Jason Reitman (Juno)
Major Threats
(6) Sidney Lumet (Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead)
(7) Sean Penn (Into the Wild)
(8) Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)
(9) Mike Nichols (Charlie Wilson’s War) ▼
(10) Tim Burton (Sweeney Todd)
(11) Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood)
(12) Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton) ▲
In the Mix
(13) John Carney (Once)
(14) Tamara Jenkins (The Savages)
(15) Denzel Washington (The Great Debaters)
(16) Todd Haynes (I’m Not There)
(17) David Cronenberg (Eastern Promises)
(18) Paul Haggis (In the Valley of Elah)
BEST ACTOR
Projected Nominees
(1) Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)
(2) Denzel Washington (American Gangster)
(3) James McAvoy (Atonement) ▲
(4) Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah)
(5) John Cusack (Grace Is Gone) ▲
Major Threats
(6) George Clooney (Michael Clayton)
(7) Emile Hirsch (Into the Wild) ▲
(8) Tom Hanks (Charlie Wilson’s War) ▼
(9) Ryan Gosling (Lars and the Real Girl)
(10) Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd)
(11) Jack Nicholson (The Bucket List) ▼
(12) Mathieu Amalric (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)
(13) Philip Seymour Hoffman (Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead)
In the Mix
(14) Frank Langella (Starting Out in the Evening)
(15) Josh Brolin (No Country for Old Men)
(16) Denzel Washington (The Great Debaters)
(17) Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises)
(18) Casey Affleck (Gone Baby Gone)
(19) Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Savages)
BEST ACTRESS
Projected Nominees
(1) Ellen Page (Juno)
(2) Marion Cotillard (La Vie En Rose)
(3) Julie Christie (Away from Her) ▲
(4) Keira Knightley (Atonement)
(5) Laura Linney (The Savages) ▲
Major Threats
(6) Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart)
(7) Amy Adams (Enchanted) ▼
(8) Cate Blanchett (I’m Not There) NEW
(9) Helena Bonham Carter (Sweeney Todd)
(10) Cate Blanchett (The Golden Age)
(11) Keri Russell (Waitress)
In the Mix
(12) Nicole Kidman (Margot at the Wedding)
(13) Jodie Foster (The Brave One)
(14) Halle Berry (Things We Lost in the Fire)
(15) Tang Wei (Lust, Caution)
(16) Giovanna Mezzogiorno (Love in the Time of Cholera)
(17) Marketa Irglova (Once)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Projected Nominees
(1) Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild) ▲
(2) Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)
(3) Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)
(4) Philip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson’s War)
(5) Paul Dano (There Will Be Blood) ▲
Major Threats
(6) Casey Affleck (The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford ▼
(7) John Travolta (Hairspray)
(8) Philip Bosco (The Savages)
(9) Ethan Hawke (Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead) ▲
In the Mix
(10) Max von Sydow (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)
(11) Forest Whitaker (The Great Debaters)
(12) Robert Downey, Jr. (Zodiac)
(13) Ed Harris (Gone Baby Gone)
(14) Morgan Freeman (The Bucket List)
(15) Alan Rickman (Sweeney Todd)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Projected Nominees
(1) Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone)
(2) Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton)
(3) Saoirse Ronan (Atonement)
(4) Vanessa Redgrave (Atonement)
(5) Jennifer Garner (Juno) ▲
Major Threats
(6) Marisa Tomei (Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead)
(7) Ruby Dee (American Gangster) ▲
(8) Jennifer Jason Leigh (Margot at the Wedding)
(9) Tabu (The Namesake)
In the Mix
(10) Leslie Mann (Knocked Up) ▲
(11) Julia Roberts (Charlie Wilson’s War)
(12) Kelly MacDonald (No Country for Old Men)
(13) Michelle Pfeiffer (Hairspray)
(14) Allison Janney (Juno)
(15) Romola Garai (Atonement)











I’m thrilled to see Kite Runner has moved up on your list of films for Best Picture. I’m really pulling for this movie even as the release date has been pushed back to December 14th due to controversy and ensuring the safety of the young actors.