The following projections are by no means scientific and are arrived at through a variety of means, including advance screenings and insights from trusted industry sources. As always, your comments are welcomed.
▲ (Positive momentum) ▼ (Negative momentum) NEW (New to the category)
BEST PICTURE
Projected Nominees
(1) There Will Be Blood (Paramount)
(2) Juno (Fox Searchlight)
(3) Atonement (Focus Features)
(4) Charlie Wilson’s War (Universal)
(5) American Gangster (Universal)
Major Threats
(6) Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead (Think Film) ▲
(7) The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Miramax)
(8) No Country for Old Men (Miramax)
(9) Sweeney Todd (DreamWorks)
(10) Gone Baby Gone (Miramax) ▲
In the Mix
(11) In the Valley of Elah (Warner Independent)
(12) Michael Clayton (Warner Brothers) ▲
(13) Once (Fox Searchlight)
(14) Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage)
(15) Lions for Lambs (Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer)
(16) Beowulf (Warner Brothers) ▲
(17) The Kite Runner (DreamWorks) ▼
(18) The Bucket List (Warner Brothers)
(19) I’m Not There (The Weinstein Company)
(20) The Golden Compass (New Line)
(21) The Great Debaters (The Weinstein Company) NEW
On the Outside
(22) Lars and the Real Girl (Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer)
(23) Eastern Promises (Focus Features)
(24) The Savages (Fox Searchlight)
(25) Love in the Time of Cholera (New Line)
(26) The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Brothers)
(27) Sicko (The Weinstein Company)
Keep in Mind
(28) 3:10 to Yuma (Lions Gate) ▲
(29) In Bloom (Magnolia)
(30) Cassandra’s Dream (The Weinstein Company)
(31) Away from Her (Lions Gate)
(32) Hairspray (New Line)
(33) Ratatouille (Disney)
(34) A Mighty Heart (Paramount Vantage)
(35) Margot at the Wedding (Paramount Classics)
(36) Lust, Caution (Focus Features)
(37) Youth Without Youth (Sony Pictures Classics) NEW
(38) Things We Lost in the Fire (Paramount) ▼
(39) Reservation Road (Focus Features)
(40) The Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight)
(41) Darfur Now (Warner Independent)
(42) Waitress (Fox Searchlight)
(43) Rendition (New Line)
(44) Mr. Magorium’s Wonder Emporium (Twentieth Century-Fox)
(45) Dan in Real Life (Buena Vista)
Questionable
(46) Zodiac (Paramount)
(47) August Rush (Warner Brothers)
(48) Rails and Ties (Warner Independent)
(49) The Brave One (Warner Brothers)
(50) The Golden Age (Universal)
(51) The Namesake (Fox Searchlight)
(52) The Kingdom (Universal)
(53) Rescue Dawn (Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer)
(54) Feast of Love (Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer)
(55) Across the Universe (Revolution)
BEST DIRECTOR
Projected Nominees
(1) Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood)
(2) Jason Reitman (Juno)
(3) Mike Nichols (Charlie Wilson’s War)
(4) Joe Wright (Atonement)
(5) Sidney Lumet (Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead) ▲
Major Threats
(6) Ridley Scott (American Gangster)
(7) Ethan Coen, Joel Coen (No Country for Old Men)
(8) Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)
(9) Tim Burton (Sweeney Todd)
(10) Ben Affleck (Gone Baby Gone) ▲
In the Mix
(11) Paul Haggis (In the Valley of Elah)
(12) Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton) ▲
(13) John Carney (Once)
(14) Sean Penn (Into the Wild)
(15) Robert Redford (Lions for Lambs)
(16) Robert Zemeckis (Beowulf) ▲
(17) Marc Forster (The Kite Runner) ▼
(18) Rob Reiner (The Bucket List)
(19) Todd Haynes (I’m Not There)
(20) Chris Weitz (The Golden Compass)
(21) Denzel Washington (The Great Debaters) NEW
On the Outside
(22) Craig Gillespie (Lars and the Real Girl)
(23) David Cronenberg (Eastern Promises)
(24) Tamara Jenkins (The Savages)
(25) Mike Newell (Love in the Time of Cholera)
(26) Andrew Dominik (The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford)
(27) Michael Moore (Sicko)
Keep in Mind
(28) James Mangold (3:10 to Yuma) ▲
(29) Vadim Perelman (In Bloom)
(30) Woody Allen (Cassandra’s Dream)
(31) Sarah Polley (Away from Her)
(32) Adam Shankman (Hairspray) NEW
(33) Brad Bird (Ratatouille)
(34) Michael Winterbottom (A Mighty Heart)
(35) Noah Baumbach (Margot at the Wedding)
(36) Ang Lee (Lust, Caution)
(37) Francis Ford Coppola (Youth Without Youth) NEW
(38) Suzanne Bier (Things We Lost in the Fire) ▼
(39) Terry George (Reservation Road)
(40) Wes Anderson (The Darjeeling Limited)
(41) Ted Braun (Darfur Now)
(42) Adrienne Shelley (Waitress)
(43) Gavin Hood (Rendition)
(44) Zach Helm (Mr. Magorium’s Wonder Emporium)
(45) Peter Hedges (Dan in Real Life)
Questionable
(46) David Fincher (Zodiac)
(47) Kirsten Sheridan (August Rush)
(48) Alison Eastwood (Rails and Ties)
(49) Neil Jordan (The Brave One)
(50) Shekhar Kapur (The Golden Age)
(51) Mira Nair (The Namesake)
(52) Peter Berg (The Kingdom)
(53) Werner Herzog (Rescue Dawn)
(54) Robert Benton (Feast of Love)
(55) Julie Taymor (Across the Universe)
BEST ACTOR
Projected Nominees
(1) Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)
(2) Tom Hanks (Charlie Wilson’s War)
(3) James McAvoy (Atonement)
(4) Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah) ▲
(5) Mathieu Amalric (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)
Major Threats
(6) George Clooney (Michael Clayton)
(7) Denzel Washington (American Gangster)
(8) Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd)
(9) John Cusack (Grace Is Gone)
(10) Jack Nicholson (The Bucket List) ▲
(11) Benicio Del Toro (Things We Lost in the Fire) ▲
(12) Casey Affleck (Gone Baby Gone) ▲
(13) Ryan Gosling (Lars and the Real Girl)
In the Mix
(14) Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises)
(15) Emile Hirsch (Into the Wild)
(16) Denzel Washington (The Great Debaters) NEW
(17) Josh Brolin (No Country for Old Men)
(18) Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Savages)
(19) Philip Seymour Hoffman (Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead)
On the Outside
(20) Russell Crowe (3:10 to Yuma)
(21) Khalid Abdalla (The Kite Runner) ▼
(22) Joaquin Phoenix (Reservation Road)
(23) Javier Bardem (Love in the Time of Cholera)
(24) Robert Redford (Lions for Lambs)
(25) Brad Pitt (The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford)
Keep in Mind
(26) Frank Langella (Starting Out in the Evening)
(27) Glen Hansard (Once)
(28) Sam Riley (Control) NEW
(28) Tim Roth (Youth Without Youth) NEW
(29) Mark Ruffalo (Reservation Road)
(30) Kevin Bacon (Rails and Ties)
(31) Michael Cera (Superbad) NEW
Questionable
(32) Christian Bale (Rescue Dawn)
(33) Gordon Pinsett (Away from Her)
(34) Michael Caine (Sleuth) ▼
(35) Seth Rogen (Knocked Up)
(36) Don Cheadle (Talk to Me)
(37) Richard Gere (The Hoax)
(38) Steve Carell (Dan in Real Life)
(39) Tony Leung (Lust, Caution)
(40) Sean Penn (Crossing Over) NEW
(41) Samuel L. Jackson (Resurrecting the Champ) NEW
(42) Woody Harrelson (The Walker) NEW
(43) Chris Cooper (Breach) NEW
(44) Kevin Costner (Mr. Brooks) NEW
(45) Jamie Foxx (The Kingdom)
(46) Clive Owen (The Golden Age)
(47) Jake Gyllenhaal (Rendition)
BEST ACTRESS
Projected Nominees
(1) Ellen Page (Juno)
(2) Keira Knightley (Atonement)
(3) Laura Linney (The Savages)
(4) Marion Cotillard (La Vie En Rose)
(5) Julie Christie (Away from Her) ▲
Major Threats
(6) Amy Adams (Enchanted) ▲
(7) Halle Berry (Things We Lost in the Fire) ▼
(8) Helena Bonham Carter (Sweeney Todd)
(9) Giovanna Mezzogiorno (Love in the Time of Cholera)
(10) Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart)
(11) Uma Thurman (In Bloom)
In the Mix
(12) Cate Blanchett (The Golden Age)
(13) Nicole Kidman (Margot at the Wedding)
(14) Charlize Theron (In the Valley of Elah)
(15) Marketa Irglova (Once)
On the Outside
(16) Keri Russell (Waitress)
(17) Jodie Foster (The Brave One)
(18) Marcia Gay Harden (Rails and Ties)
(19) Julia Roberts (Charlie Wilson’s War)
Keep in Mind
(20) Wei Tang (Lust, Caution) NEW
(21) Nikki Blonsky (Hairspray) NEW
(22) Keri Russell (August Rush)
(23) Reese Witherspoon (Rendition)
(24) Juliette Binoche (Dan in Real Life)
(25) Hilary Swank (P.S., I Love You)
Questionable
(26) Katherine Heigl (Knocked Up) NEW
(27) Naomi Watts (Eastern Promises)
(28) Parker Posey (Broken English)
(29) Anne Hathaway (Becoming Jane)
(30) Ashley Judd (Bug) NEW
(31) Christina Ricci (Black Snake Moan) NEW
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Projected Nominees
(1) Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)
(2) Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton) ▲
(3) Philip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson’s War)
(4) Paul Dano (There Will Be Blood)
(5) Tom Cruise (Lions for Lambs)
Major Threats
(6) Russell Crowe (American Gangster)
(7) John Travolta (Hairspray)
(8) Ed Harris (Gone Baby Gone) ▲
(9) Alan Rickman (Sweeney Todd)
(10) Albert Finney (Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead) ▲
(11) Casey Affleck (The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford)
In the Mix
(12) Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild)
(13) Max von Sydow (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)
(14) Morgan Freeman (The Bucket List)
(15) Philip Bosco (The Savages)
On the Outside
(16) Dustin Hoffman (Mr. Magorium’s Wonder Emporium)
(17) Ethan Hawke (Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead)
(18) Armin Mueller-Stahl (Eastern Promises)
(19) Ben Foster (3:10 to Yuma)
(20) Sacha Baron Cohen (Sweeney Todd) NEW
(21) Robert Downey, Jr. (Zodiac)
Keep in Mind
(22) Liev Schreiber (Love in the Time of Cholera)
(23) Omar Metwally (Rendition)
(24) Tommy Lee Jones (No Country for Old Men) ▼
(25) Adrien Brody (The Darjeeling Limited)
(26) Christian Bale (I’m Not There)
Questionable
(27) Michael Cera (Juno)
(28) Jason Bateman (Juno)
(29) Forest Whitaker (The Great Debaters)
(30) Steve Zahn (Rescue Dawn)
(31) Peter Sarsgaard (Rendition)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Projected Nominees
(1) Cate Blanchett (I’m Not There)
(2) Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone) ▲
(3) Jennifer Jason Leigh (Margot at the Wedding)
(4) Vanessa Redgrave (Atonement) ▲
(5) Saoirse Ronan (Atonement)
Major Threats
(6) Meryl Streep (Lions for Lambs)
(7) Marisa Tomei (Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead)
(8) Evan Rachel Wood (In Bloom)
(9) Nicole Kidman (The Golden Compass)
(10) Jennifer Garner (Juno)
(11) Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton) ▲
In the Mix
(12) Jennifer Connelly (Reservation Road)
(13) Romola Garai (Atonement)
(14) Michelle Pfeiffer (Hairspray)
(15) Kelly MacDonald (No Country for Old Men) ▼
On the Outside
(16) Emily Mortimer (Lars and the Real Girl)
(17) Hayley Atwell (Cassandra’s Dream)
(18) Angelina Jolie (Beowulf) NEW
(19) Susan Sarandon (In the Valley of Elah)
(20) Ruby Dee (American Gangster)
Keep in Mind
(21) Olympia Dukakis (Away from Her)
(22) Tabu (The Namesake)
(23) Leslie Mann (Knocked Up) NEW
(24) Catherine Keener (Into the Wild) NEW
(25) Abbie Cornish (The Golden Age)
Questionable
(26) Samantha Morton (Control) NEW
(27) Lauren Bacall (The Walker)
(28) Lili Taylor (Starting Out in the Evening) NEW
(29) Allison Janney (Juno) NEW
(30) Anjelica Huston (The Darjeeling Limited)
(31) Ashley Judd (Crossing Over) NEW
(32) Emily Blunt (The Jane Austen Book Club)
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