WEEKLY PROJECTIONS

18 Dec


With eleven weeks to go before the 78th Academy Awards, here are my ‘Power Rankings’ for the Big Six categories. See who is on track for a nomination, and who still has ground to cover…


BEST PICTURE

Projected Nominees
[1] Munich
[2] Brokeback Mountain
[3] Good Night, and Good Luck
[4] Walk the Line
[5] Cinderella Man


In Contention
[6]
Match Point, [7] Mrs. Henderson Presents, [8] Crash, [9] The Producers, [10] The Constant Gardener, [11] King Kong
Dark Horses
[12] The Squid and the Whale, [13] Capote, [14] Memoirs of a Geisha, [15] The Family Stone
Not Forgotten
[16] The New World, [17] Syriana, [18] The White Countess, [19] Pride and Prejudice, [20] The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada, [21] Hustle and Flow

BEST DIRECTOR

Projected Nominees
[1] Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain)
[2] Steven Spielberg (Munich)
[3] George Clooney (Good Night, and Good Luck)
[4] Woody Allen (Match Point)
[5] Peter Jackson (King Kong)
In Contention
[6] James Mangold (Walk the Line), [7] Fernando Meirelles (The Constant Gardener), [8] David Cronenberg (A History of Violence), [9] Ron Howard (Cinderella Man), [10] Rob Marshall (Memoirs of a Geisha), [11] Paul Haggis (Crash), [12] Stephen Frears (Mrs. Henderson Presents)

Dark Horses
[13] Bennett Miller (Capote), [14] Stephen Gaghan (Syriana), [15] Terence Malick (The New World)

Not Forgotten

[16] Susan Stroman (The Producers), [17] James Ivory (The White Countess), [18] Tommy Lee Jones (The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada)


BEST ACTOR
Projected Nominees
[1] Joaquin Phoenix (Walk the Line)
[2] Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote)
[3] Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain)
[4] David Strathairn (Good Night, and Good Luck)
[5] Terrence Howard (Hustle and Flow)
In Contention
[6] Russell Crowe (Cinderella Man), [7] Eric Bana (Munich), [8] Jeff Daniels (The Squid and the Whale), [9] Nathan Lane (The Producers), [10] Steve Carrell (The 40 Year Old Virgin), [11] Jonathan Rhys-Meyers (Match Point)
Dark Horses
[12] Tommy Lee Jones (The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada), [13] Ralph Fiennes (The White Countess), [14] Ralph Fiennes (The Constant Gardener)
Not Forgotten
[15] Bill Murray (Broken Flowers), [16] Viggo Mortensen (A History of Violence), [17] Anthony Hopkins (The World’s Fastest Indian), [18] Cillian Murphy (Breakfast on Pluto)


BEST ACTRESS
Projected Nominees
[1] Judi Dench (Mrs. Henderson Presents)
[2] Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line)
[3] Felicity Huffman (Transamerica)
[4] Ziyi Zhang (Memoirs of a Geisha)
[5] Keira Knightley (Pride and Prejudice)
In Contention
[6] Sarah Jessica Parker (The Family Stone), [7] Charlize Theron (North Country), [8] Naomi Watts (King Kong)
Dark Horses
[9] Natasha Richardson (The White Countess)
, [10] Q’Orianka Kilcher (The New World), [11] Joan Allen (Upside of Anger), [12] Gwyneth Paltrow (Proof)
Not Forgotten
[13] Claire Danes (Shopgirl), [14] Vera Farmiga (Down to the Bone)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Projected Nominees
[1] George Clooney (Syriana)
[2] Jake Gyllenhaal (Brokeback Mountain)
[3] Bob Hoskins (Mrs. Henderson Presents)
[4] Paul Giamatti (Cinderella Man)
[5] Matt Dillon (Crash)
In Contention
[6] William Hurt (A History of Violence), [7] Matthew Broderick (The Producers), [8] Craig T. Nelson (The Family Stone), [9] Terrence Howard (Crash), [10] Barry Pepper (The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada), [11] Christopher Plummer (The New World)
Dark Horses
[12] Peter Sarsgaard (Jarhead), [13] Clifton Collins Jr. (Capote), [14] Geoffrey Rush (Munich), [15] Kevin Costner (Upside of Anger), [16] Jeffrey Wright (Syriana), [17] Jamie Foxx (Jarhead)
Not Forgotten
[18] Will Ferrell (The Producers), [19] G
eorge Clooney (Good Night, and Good Luck), [20] Ken Watanabe (Memoirs of a Geisha), [21] Jesse L. Martin (Rent), [22] Don Cheadle (Crash), [23] Frank Langella (Good Night, and Good Luck)



BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Projected Nominees
[1] Scarlett Johansson (Match Point)
[2]
Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain)
[3]
Rachel Weisz (The Constant Gardener)
[4] Gong Li (Memoirs of a Geisha)
[5] Maria Bello (A History of Violence)
In Contention
[6] Laura Linney (The Squid and the Whale), [7] Diane Keaton (The Family Stone), [8] Uma Thurman (The Producers), [9] Catherine Keener (Capote), [10] Shirley MacLaine (In Her Shoes)
, [11] Frances McDormand (North Country)
Dark Horses
[12] Amy Adams (Junebug)
, [13] Vanessa Redgrave (The White Countess), [14] Emily Mortimer (Match Point), [15] Anne Hathaway (Brokeback Mountain)
Not Forgotten
[16] Rosario Dawson (Rent), [17] Rachel McAdams (The Family Stone)
, [18] Michelle Yeoh (Memoirs of a Geisha), [19] Thandie Newton (Crash), [20] Brenda Blethyn (Pride and Prejudice)

Share:
  • email
  • Digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Technorati
  • Tumblr
  • MySpace
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • RSS

One Response

  1. Spencer Shannon 20. Dec, 2005 7:57 am #

    To Scott, I reckon” I am the first to reply on your
    pretty nice new site

    & of course have a few splits with your forecasting of the nominees
    Not too-many though

    I have a gut feeling that this yrs 78th Annual Academy Awards are going to be fairly dull though-(aka predictable)

    With "B. Mountain" easily being named Best Film. & P.S. Hoffman as Best Actor-(though the Globes may throw the bone to likes of a Heath Ledger instead?)
    & Ang Lee, winning his 2nd "Golden Boy"-(after taking foreign-film for "Crouching Tiger")

    It”s unfortunate, that such grand movie-making as "Kong," will likely not even be among the BP contenders though-(feeling they already gave enough to *Peter Jackson . Typically, AMPAS nonsense)

    & I hope you are on the $$$ about my own personal fav. of the year "Cinderella Man" & it at least being among the top 5-(NOTE: My 24th annual final nominee predix, for this year, will be announced day after SAG noms January 5th, 2006)

    Hope more check-in though

    See ya”

Leave a Reply