Comments
1 - "Further, only one film has ever won Best Picture without earning a Best Director nomination--Driving Miss Daisy ('89)."

Grand Hotel (1932). It's only nomination was for Best Picture, which it won.
Wings (1927). Nom'd for Production and Engineering Effects, both of which were won. (Comment this)

Written by: Justin at 2007/01/29 - 21:59:08
2 - You definitely have some good points here. And I think the Dreamgirls snub only helps Sunshine too (it's now the only "fun" nominee in the bunch).

Although in my opinion - and I LOVE Little Miss Sunshine - all this business about campaigning by driving around in a VW bus and sending out things that say "little best picture" strikes me as... well... a tad obnoxious. I think the film speaks for itself. (Comment this)

Written by: Adam K. at 2007/01/30 - 01:28:42
3 - I don't disagree with your overall analysis, but this comment here:

"In the 30 years since a comedy last won"

can only be true if <i>Forrest Gump</i> and <i>Shakespeare in Love</i> aren't considered comedies. The first might be arguable; the second isn't even a close call, which means it's only been 8 years since a comedy last won. <i>Gump</i> won over other funny fare, but <i>Shakespeare</i> won in a surprise over <i>Saving Private Ryan</i>, exactly the sort of serious, "important" fare that would be expected to win.

Also, I think <i>The Queen</i> has a happy ending and is a lovely little film. I'm not sure which will win, but at this point I'd say a tossup between LMS, Queen, and maybe Clint's movie if the voters go the serious route. (Comment this)

Written by: Cal at 2007/01/30 - 16:04:13
4 - Just so you know Valerie Faris and Jonathan Dayton are not really first time directors. They have been a leading team in music video direction(they did that amazing video for Smashing Pumpkins) for a number of years. But in terms of first feature this is their first. (Comment this)

Written by: Yams at 2007/01/30 - 20:18:38
5 - All I can say is if LMS wins Best Picture...I am through with the Oscars. (Comment this)

Written by: michelle at 2007/01/30 - 20:48:08
6 - Most thoughtful analysis of the Oscar Race yet, so thank you Scott, and good for you on your upcoming book; I've tried to do a similar thing - starting a movie club "Appreciating 60's and 70's American Film".

I love Little Miss Sunshine. After we left the theatre, I said to my party "best movie you'll see this year." Go Little Miss Sunshine! (Comment this)

Written by: Matthew at 2007/01/31 - 15:37:58
7 - i've heard that the opening skit/sequence to the oscars this year will feature the the penguin from happy feet swimming to santa monica and getting in the same vw bus in LMS and driving to the ceremony, picking up characters along the way (The Queen driving, etc.). (Comment this)

Written by: augustwest at 2007/02/01 - 15:51:38
8 - What a great post and analysis. LMS certainly appears to be picking up the online buzz. I certainly could see this happening, although The Departed also seems like a potential film to beat...it's hard to tell if this is just Scorcese's pic. (Comment this)

Written by: RC of strangeculture at 2007/02/02 - 02:49:19
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